The Disturbing Truth Behind WWE's FOX TV Deal

Before we dive in fully, let's note that this editorial isn't a prediction of failure. Things will likely work out for WWE and FOX. The momentum generated from this deal (real momentum, not the kind Michael Cole babbles on about) is already propelling WWE forward at an impressive rate. WWE's financial position was already close to failure-proof; now, with this extra billion, Vince McMahon's coffers are so flush they'd make Scrooge McDuck blush.

But success isn't guaranteed. It never is. While WWE going out of business anytime in the next decade is a ludicrous prediction, there's still the slightest of slight chances that disaster could befall the promotion. The chances of the FOX deal falling apart aren't so slight.

FOX have given SmackDown every chance of success. In their own words, the network are "rolling out the blue carpet." That their platform has greater reach than SD's current USA home (where Raw remains) makes the old B-show WWE's de facto flagship. The show is being treated as an important part of FOX's weekend sports run, with the 11 October Draft episode getting a particularly strong push in recent weeks. It's all very encouraging so far.

Here's the thing, though: remember those December 2018 reports stating FOX would expect SmackDown to draw an average of 3.3 million viewers each week? Well, the most recent episode did 2.06 million on USA. The network is essentially asking for a 60% jump.

Are these expectations realistic?

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