Newcastle United: How High Can The Magpies Finish Next Season?
If the 2011/12 season is anything to go by, predicting the performance of the Magpies next season is going to be anything but a simple challenge.
It is no secret that after his eye-catching goals and explosive form, Papiss Cisse will be on the radar of Champions League clubs over the coming season, and the same can be said of captain Fabricio Coloccini, whose solid displays at the heart of the Toon defence were rewarded with a place in the PFA Team of the Year last campaign. Add to this the performances of Dutch keeper Tim Krul and midfield maestro Yohan Cabaye and it is no surprise to see the spine of Newcastles side being linked away from the North East. Thus perhaps it is fair to conclude that Newcastles success in the future depends more on resisting the overtures of bigger clubs rather than signing more players themselves. Often for promoted teams which survive Premier League relegation with ease in their maiden top flight campaign, the phrase second season syndrome is mentioned with reference to how difficult it can be to build on last seasons achievements; similarly in music, if an artist has a best-selling album, they often talk about the tricky second album. With regards to football though, whilst some sides can rise to second season syndrome, such as Stoke City did when they reached an FA Cup final and establishing themselves as Premier League regulars, others struggle with the expectation or having been found out by their opponents. Although Newcastle should have no fears of relegation in 2012/13 I cant help but feel second season syndrome will definitely hit the Magpies and a place in the top 7 should therefore be considered a good season. It remains to be seen how Liverpool and Tottenham will perform with new managers, but the sizeable outlay by Roman Abramovich at Stamford Bridge, means I cannot see the Toon sneaking into the Champions League next season or even retaining their fifth placed position. In addition to the strengthening of their rivals, Newcastle will suffer more from fixture congestion, with the Europa League requiring they play on Thursdays and Sundays and those trips to Kiev and Istanbul wont do much for their Premier League aspirations and Pardew is going to have to use his resources wisely if Newcastle are going to remain competitive on both fronts. On a more positive note, should Newcastle prioritise winning the Europa League I dont see anything stopping. Like all cup competitions luck is the money-cant-buy asset, and having seen Fulham and Middlesborough reach the final in the past, I see no reason why Newcastle cannot at least reach the final in Amsterdam in May. However as mentioned previously, should they target continental competitions it is inescapably going to lead to a weaker performance in the Premier League this time round. In short, should Newcastle invest wisely this summer as they over the past 12 months as well as keep their key players, it is not unreasonable to expect them to lay the foundations to establish themselves as one of the biggest clubs in England over the coming years. Mike Ashleys prudent and at times unpopular ownership has over the past couple of years at least paid dividends for the Magpies and has seen them return to European competition despite playing in the Championship just over 24 months ago. However due to the heavy investment in Chelsea, Arsenal (heavy by their standards) and the new managers at Tottenham and Liverpool, coupled with the expectation, I cannot see Newcastle finishing any higher this season as they did last season, however a fruitful campaign on the continent is more than realistic. If the 2011/12 season is anything to go by, predicting the performance of the Magpies next season is going to be anything but a simple challenge.