Ok, so it's sink or swim time. After millions spent in marketing, countless hours of jabbering on talk shows and on the press circuit, and billions of lines of text written by Oscar pundits, and I dare say a good wad of cash put down at the bookies - we are merely hours away from this year's Oscar nominations to be officially announced by the Academy. (1.30pm U.K. Time - Screened on BBC News Channel) This is usually the most exciting day of the whole Oscar build-up as you wake up dreaming that almost anything is possible. We've seen it happen so many times before - whether it be Robert Downey Jr's surprise nomination for Tropic Thunder or last year's kerfuffle with The Blind Side sneaking in as Best Picture nominee. Or when The Dark Knight and Wall*E were snubbed two years ago in favour of The Reader... yikes! I've kept a close eye on the Oscar race thus far, and feel I have a pretty good instinct for what's to be nominated generally. I imagine these will be about 80% correct and I've also indicated how confident I am for each nomination (lock, very likely, uneasy etc). For me, there's only one slot in the Best Picture race that's not yet nailed on...
Best Picture
Locks 127 Hours Black Swan Inception The Fighter The Kids Are All Right The King's Speech The Social Network Toy Story 3 True Grit Very Likely: The Town (and if not that, then Winter's Bone almost definitely). Still, Shutter Island has a ton of vocal support behind it for Martin Scorsese, so it could pull a Blind Side, no? Surely we wouldn't be up in arms over that one!!
Best Director
*and subsequently the category that diminishes the other five Best Picture nominee's without their helmer chosen, meaning they don't have a chance in hell of winning the top prize* Locks: Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan) David Fincher (The Social Network) Tom Hooper (The King's Speech) Christopher Nolan (Inception) Very Likely: David O'Russell (The Fighter) I imagine Danny Boyle's work on 127 Hours will just be too divisive, and True Grit suffers perhaps from not having the typical Coen idiosyncracy, as well as it being a remake.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Locks: Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network) Colin Firth (The King's Speech) James Franco (127 Hours) Very Likely: Javier Bardem (Biutiful), Jeff Bridges (True Grit) Either of the bottom two I feel could be ousted by Academy favourite Robert Duvall in Get Low or, more likely, despite its lack of support on the campaign trail so far, Ryan Gosling in the excellent Blue Valentine. After his Globe win, also can't discount Paul Giamatii for Barney's Version either (which I still haven't seen yet...).
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Locks: Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right) Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole) Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone) Natalie Portman (Black Swan) Very Likely: Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine) A very tough, packed category. Hailee Steinfeld should be here for True Grit but the studio have pushed her for Supporting as it's an easier field. If not Williams, then expect Julianne Moore to show up for her work in The Kids Are All Right. Also could see, and I hope we do, Lesley Manville for Another Year, but audience seem to view it as a supporting role while the studios pushed for a leading nomination (and I tend to agree with the studio here in what is clearly not a politicised or strategic move, but a bluntly honest one).
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Locks: Christian Bale (The Fighter) Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech) Very Likely: Andrew Garfield (The Social Network), Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right) Uneasy: Jeremy Renner (The Town) A lot of good performances but not too many truly strong ones, so it's kind of a wild card. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see Justin Timberlake take a slot for The Social Network, nor Sam Rockwell for Conviction. Maybe even John Hawkes' understated work on Winter's Bone.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Locks: Amy Adams (The Fighter) Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech) Melissa Leo (The Fighter) Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit) Jackie Weaver (Animal Kingdom) No surprises foreseeable in this category. No last minute push for Marion Cotillard's turn in Inception.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Locks: The Social Network Toy Story 3 True Grit Very Likely: 127 Hours Uneasy: The Ghost Writer It's a real hunch with The Ghost Writer, but it was an acclaimed, smart adaptation of a very popular book, and I think it can easily edge out the less populist Winter's Bone and Rabbit Hole, and probably The Town too as people aren't overly familiar with the source material. Not to mention how much the Academy love showing their absurd loyalty to Polanski...
Best Original Screenplay
Locks: Inception The Kids Are All Right The King's Speech Very Likely: Black Swan Uneasy: The Fighter A real gamble with The Fighter, but people seem to love the film. I hope Blue Valentine or Another Year nudges it out though.
Best Art Direction
Locks: Alice in Wonderand The King's Speech Very Likely: Black Swan, Inception, Shutter Island The below the line categories like this I find inexorably tough to call (mainly because I don't care all that much about art direction and costume design), so there's a good chance I could be very wrong and fantasy fare like Harry Potter or Narnia might creep in.
Best Cinematoraphy
Locks: True Grit Inception Black Swan Very Likely: 127 Hours, The King's Speech Definitely a bit of wiggle room here. Given how divisive Boyle's frenetic direction will be with the older Academy members, I imagine we could see 127 Hours lose out here to something like Shutter Island and the brilliant work from Robert Richardson.
Best Costume Design
Locks: Alice in Wonderland The King's Speech Very Likely: Black Swan, Burlesque Uneasy: True Grit Could very well see something like The Tempest or Tron Legacy squeeze in instead of True Grit, I expect.
Best Film Editing
Locks: Inception The Social Network Very Likey: 127 Hours, Black Swan Uneasy: True Grit I could easily imagine The Town or Tron Legacy making it in for their exhilarating action sequences.
Best Makeup
Locks: Alice in Wonderland The Wolfman Very Likely: Barney's Version, The Fighter, The Way Back A pretty cut and dried race really. Though can that scene with Ken Watanabe in Inception sway enough people?
Best Original Score
Locks: How to Train Your Dragon Inception The Social Network Uneasy: 127 Hours, The King's Speech
Best Original Song
Locks: Burlesque - "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me" Tangled - "I See The Light" Toy Story 3 - "We Belong Together" Uneasy: 127 Hours - "If I Rise, Waiting for Superman - "Shine" Best Sound Editing (that's the physical creation of the sound effects - i.e. cars crashing/explosions/weapon noises) Locks: Inception Tron Legacy Very Likely: Iron Man 2, Toy Story 3, True Grit Best Sound Mixing (how dialogue, sound effects, and a soundtrack are all incorporated together) Locks: Inception Tron Legacy Very Likely: Black Swan, The Social Network, True Grit Would love to see Tron Legacy make it in here, but given the film's mild reception and the Academy's abject prejudice to electronic scores, it's sadly quite unlikely.
Best Visual Effects
Locks: Alice in Wonderland Inception Iron Man 2 Tron: Legacy Very Likely: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 1 Would love to see Scott Pilgrim vs. The World rip Harry Potter out of the race but most of the Academy probably never even saw it...
Best Animated Film
Locks: Toy Story 3 How to Train Your Dragon Uneasy: Tangled The field being limited to three is quite ludicrous, but this third slot is very hard to call. Favourite to sneak in is unquestionably Despicable Me, but The Illusionist isn't impossible despite having little festival support.
Best Documentary Film
Locks: Inside Job Waiting for Superman Uneasy: Exit Through the Gift Shop, Restrepo, Waste Land Again quite hard to call (as I've only seen a handful of the possible nominees). Really hope Banksy makes the cut; expect The Tilman Story to possibly make it in.
Best Foreign Language Film
Very Likely: Biutiful Dogtooth Uneasy: In A Better World, Indices, Life, Above All A tough category as always, precisely because I've only seen two of the nine shortlisted films after Of Gods and Men was astoundingly omitted. Dogtooth could very easily be ousted though given its fairly disturbing content. That's my predictions for today's Oscar nominations. Feel free to argue and mock how badly I probably did. I'll be following up with an article relaying how well I did and what I make of the nominations.