The Oscars. Hollywoods biggest night is always preceded by a stream of complaints against the system, reminders of past injustices, and cries in vain for the films that were snubbed. Its a night that many of us love to hate, and then, when they finally do roll around, everyone watches anyway. Regardless of how right or wrong the choices are, or how ludicrous it is to think that there is one definitive Best Film every year, the Oscars still hold an important place in the world of cinema. And so its best to just try to have as much fun with them as you can, cause they arent going anywhere. The winners are selected by an odd blend of momentum, studio politics, and actual merit, so trying to guess the whos going home with the statue is less about knowing who did the best job and more about realizing whos moment it is, or what film feels the most like an Oscar winner (see: The Kings Speech over The Social Network). Still, we can dream, so alongside my guesses of who will take home the awards, we can ponder who should, in a perfect world, go home with the prize. And off we go;
Best Picture: Will Win - Argo
All signs point to Ben Afflecks relatively slick thriller taking home the big one. Not only has it pretty much swept the ceremonies leading up to Oscar night, it also has a certain Best Picture feel to it that should make it a lock. Argo has everything the Oscar voters seem to want to see: excitement, a positive resolution, easy to define good and bad guys, and an acknowledgement to the power of the movies. Is it actually the best film of the year? Of course not. But as the best pretty good film of the year, its a safe, acceptable choice, and sometimes thats what matters most.
Best Picture: Should Win - The Silver Linings Playbook
Of the nine contenders, only the vastly overrated (and emotionally manipulative) Beasts of the Southern Wild truly doesnt belong. I have my reservations about Zero Dark Thirty as well, but those are for ethical rather than cinematic reasons; as a film, its good enough to make the list. Its a bit ironic then that on a list full of solid contenders, theres no one film that stands over the others, no one picture that seems destined to become a classic (an outright classic, not a cult classic) as the years go by. But of the choices, Silver Linings Playbook is the best. Its the film thats stuck with the me the longest, and even if its ending feels a bit too neat and tidy, the journey it takes is willing to get into some rough places, and it has enough manic energy to hold you in even during its (few) stumbles. Theres still a slim chance that it could upset Argo (Harvey Weinstein has pulled bigger rabbits out the the hat over the years - Im looking at you, Shakespeare in Love), but look for it to lose out to Argo and take one or two acting awards home as a consolation.