Chance: Dead Cert Anyone who tells you it's "anyone's game" at this stage in the game is a big, fat liar. This movie pulled ahead as the front runner a LONG time ago, but it was admittedly too early for anyone to call the race when they did. With most of the projected contenders in theaters now, reactions can be gaged and bets can be hedged. So yeah... this movie is now the official front runner for the Best Picture race, because not only is it a film based on a true story, it's also a film that tackles the social issue of racism in one of the most relevant contexts ever recorded. It's also got the shock factor on its side, as audiences have been shocked to the point of tears with the events in the film. On top of Best Picture hopes, Chiwetel Ejiofor will more than likely grab a Best Actor nomination (and likely win), and Best Adapted Screenplay is also most assuredly in the bag.