2. Alexander Payne - Nebraska
Before the film's premiere at Cannes, I originally had Payne ranked much higher on my list of potential Best Director nominees. Since then, given the generally positive, but relatively cool response the film received at the world's most prestigious film festival, I have obviously adjusted my expectations of its shot at awards glory accordingly. Now it is true that the film did win Bruce Dern the festival's Best Actor award, so there were obviously aspects of the film the Cannes jury (which was made up of more than a few Academy members) did appreciate, and anyone who doesn't count Bruce Dern as a serious Best Actor contender for the Oscars is lying to themselves. The more important question remains though, what about the film's chances in other categories? While many awards pundits have begun to write Nebraska off as a potential Best Picture player, I contend it is still too early to do so. The black-and-white, father-son road trip movie about a senile man who takes the journey from Montana to Nebraska in order to claim a fictitious sweepstakes prize is not the type of stuff the Cannes crowd dreams of. Instead, it is the bread-and-butter mix of comedy and drama that fans of middle-brow films, such as the bulk of the Academy, devour on sight. They did so with Payne's last film, The Descendants, and while that film received better notices overall, it had its fair share of critics as well who were leveling very similar negative remarks as to what is being said about Nebraska, yet that didn't deter the Academy from nominating The Descendants for a slew of awards. Alexander Payne has been very lucky with the Academy thus far, and it is inevitable that not every film he releases will be nominated for major awards. As many who have seen the film are saying, Nebraska may be simply too insignificant to pick up real awards traction during the season. If this is true, even if the film somehow managed to sneak into the expanded Best Picture lineup, Alexander Payne would be unlikely to be nominated for Best Director. Before we can make that final judgment though, quite a few more audiences need to weigh in first.