2. Will Defense's Figure Out How to Stop the Read Option?
Part of the success of RGII and Russell Wilson as well as Cam Newton, Tim Tebow (in 2011 with Denver, you can bet Bill Belichick has installed an read option package for Tebow in 2013) ), Colin Kaepernick, Micheal Vick (who will be playing in Chip Kelly's high octane college spread/option offense in this year) and a few spot players (Terelle Pryor of the Raiders, Jake Locker of the Titans) and potentially rookie Geno Smith of the Jets, is that offensive coordinator are tailoring their offense to the player, often installing the player's college system (see Ryan Tannehill in Miami) or a similar style offense to the style that player had in college. And with a large amount of more athletic, mobile QBs, teams are using a read option offense or pistol (a variation of the shotgun) to give their best athletes more simple reads and more chances to flash their athletic ability rather than sit back, read a defense and make complex progressions. Now a few years ago, the 'wildcat' was all the rage, but NFL defense quickly figured it out, and it was soon relegated to gimmick plays here and there. But with read option/pistol offenses, the QB is staying on the field and presents a legitimate dual threat attack as these new mobile QB can run it or still pass. But NFL defensive coaches have now had a full year to prevent this offense. Numerous teams have switched defensive systems with the express purpose of stopping this style of offense. The 2013 NFL draft saw 30 defensive ends drafted, the most of any position, and saw an number of athletic, fast DE/LB hybrids (Barkevious Mingo, Dion Jordan, Ziggy Ansah) drafted , who were drafted specifically to match the speed and athleticism of this new generation of mobile QBs. Much like the rise of the tall corner back in response to bigger WRs, teams are already adjusting personnel, so it's a matter of time before the combination of faster, more athletic defensive linemen and scheme specific defenses start to shut down the read option, and the classic drop back passer becomes 'in' again. Of course, the other factor that is in play here is injury. As already mentioned, RGIII's knee injury hindered him and the Redskins in their playoff loss to the Seahawks, and he has already stated he will play with a knee brace for the 2013, which is bound to limit his effective mobility. Case and point, Michael Vick who missed 6 games in 2012 and had an injury plagued 2011 season. A running QB that made a career on his legs rather than his arm has some miles on the clock and if he had not missed 2 full seasons due to the the dog fighting scandal, he would have even more wear and tear. Vicks's best season as a Philadelphia Eagle came in 2010 when he ran a balanced west coast offense that focused on short passes rather than Vick doing it all himself. And even in Atlanta where he was the face of the league for a few years with some spectacular running plays, he missed several games (11 in 2003) and he only led the Falcons to the playoffs twice as a running based QB. The combination of NFL adapting defenses and coaches and the potential injury risk will make the read option/pistol offense a story line to watch in 2013, especially with such electrifying QBS like Colin Kaepernick, RGIII and Russell Wilson running the system for a second year.