Barclay's World Tour Finals Preview

The eleven month long men's tennis calender draws to a close this week at the Barclay's World Tour Finals in London. The ATP season truly is a marathon and as in any distance race, a handful of the fittest have surged ahead of the pack and race each other to the finish line. Each of the race's four leading men - Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray and Roger Federer €“ enter the elite eight-man round robin tournament with various question marks over, so it truly is any man's race. Let's evaluate each contender's chances of taking home the season-ending championships. The marathon's front-runner Novak Djokovic comes into London more than a little exhausted. Djokovic played a nearly unblemished three quarters of the season, taking home the Australian Open, Wimbledon and US Open trophies, compiling a 6-0 record against Nadal and thereby dethroning the Spaniard as the World No. 1. By the time he completed gruelling back-to-back victories over Federer and Nadal in New York, Djokivc's win-loss record for the year was a staggering 64-2. Winning is sweet, but consistently making finals gives a player's body less time to recover and this takes its physical toll. In the lesser important post-US Open quarter of the year, poor Djoker was reduced to just six matches due a lingering shoulder issue. With a dodgy shoulder and a severe lack of match-play, it's doubtful Djokovic will be the intimidating force has been all season. However, regardless of how he performs in London, 2011 has been Djokovic's year: literally and metaphorically a $10 million season. Forever the third wheel in the Nadal-Federer rivalry, Djokovic bridged the gap between himself and the two legends of the game by upping his endurance and displaying mental strength akin to a brick wall. Things aren't going to be easy for Djokovic this week as in his group at the World Tour Finals are Murray, Tomas Berdych and David Ferrer. The in-form Murray could potentially score a second victory over the World No. 1 and expect the wily, counter-punching Ferrer to run every ball down and make Djokovic come up with something special to win. Rafael Nadal also comes into London with an unusual lack of momentum. Since bursting onto the tour in 2005 and bullyign Federer with his giant forehand, Nadal has always had every guy on tour's number. So being trumped in big-time matches time and time again by Djokovic this year was not something he was used to. A pair of back-to-back Masters tournament final losses to Djokovic (first in Indian Wells and Miami, and secondly on Nadal's beloved European clay in Madrid and Rome) seemed particularly devastating. By the season's end, a considerable amount of Nadal's potency was missing, best evidenced by a 6-0 third set scoreline in his loss to Murray in the Tokyo Masters final. When withdrawing from the Paris Masters last week Nadal stated it had been a tough year and it seemed that his withdrawal was more about saving mental energy for London than any physical injury. The secret to success for Nadal this week is find confidence from his first match, serve well and conduct himself on-court as if he is still top dog. With Djokovic away in the other group, he will face Federer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Mardy Fish in his pool. All quality opponents who have shown patches of brilliance this year, Nadal will look for confidence to build on and find a way to dominate again in 2012. The lanky frame of new World No. 3 Any Murray suggests he may be better suited to the sport of distance running. But his tennis of late insists otherwise. After a rough start to the season, shaped by another straight sets whipping in the Australian Open final (losing to Djokovic instead of Federer this time) and another a post-Aussie Open three-month slump in which he won four matches in five tournaments. Murray's turned his season around at the Rome Masters when he came close to handing Djokovic his first loss of 2011 in a nail-biting third-set tie-breaker and came through with the goods against the Djoker in the Cincinatti final. Since the US Open, Murray's versatile, fluid game has been in full flight, claiming titles in Bangkok, Tokyo and Shanghai. Having been in the top 5 consistently since mid 2008, Murray has been criticized for failing to perform in high pressure Grand Slam moments. Big, non-Slam tournaments like these are where he thrives and expect him to seize the opportunity of being in a section with a weary Djokovic and no Federer or Nadal. Although Berdych squeaked past Murray in a tight three-setter in Paris last week, the stern Scotsman will be extra serious to consilidate that he is the closest contender to Djokovic and Nadal, not that pesky old Federer character. Rounding out the front-runners is Roger Federer: World No. 4. Sounds strange, doesn't it? Not that there is anything to be ashamed about fourth place but Federer knows that the fourth man past the finish line misses out on a medal. 2011 has not been smooth sailing for the FedExpress. Not only did he fail to win a Slam for the first time since 2002, he repeatedly lost from winning positions (against Tsonga in the Wimbledon quarter-finals and more traumatically to Djokovic in the US Open semis after being two sets to love up and holding match points). The increasingly defensive 30-year-old was quick to insist it was not his most disappointing loss ever, stating that that honour would go to a 2003 David Cup loss to Lleyton Hewitt. The Barclay's World Tour Finals offer Federer a chance of redemption and a platform to tell his younger rivals that that he is still in contention of winning big tournaments. Federer also has momentum on his side after winning the past two tournaments tournaments he played in Basel and Paris Indoors. In the Paris Indoors final, Federer looked sharp and revenged his Wimbledon loss against Tsonga. Being in Nadal's group could be not so bad for Federer, as if he can make the most of his free-swinging good form and score a victory over the Spaniard, his confidence would go sky high. A well seasoned competitor in the ATP marathon, Federer knows that sometimes it is best hang behind the front-runners and bide your time before making a final dash to the line. The stage is set for Federer to salvage a lacklustre season with an eleventh hour announcement that this he isn't done yet. Prediction: Group A €“ (1) Novak Djokovic, (3) Andy Murray, (5) David Ferrer, (7) Tomas Berdych Group B €“ (2) Rafael Nadal, (4) Roger Federer, (6) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, (8) Mardy Fish Winners group A - Murray and Ferrer Winners group B - Federer and Nadal Semi finals - Federer d. Ferrer, Murray d. Nadal Final - Federer d. Murray