1. Running Backs Are No Longer A High Priority
There was a time in the NFL draft where the number 1 pick in the draft was either a running back or a quarterback. In the modern draft era, those positions have dominated the first pick -14 QBS since 1970, and 22 running backs taken 1 overall since the draft started in 1936. However in the 2013 draft, no running back was taken in the first round , the first time that has happened in 50 years. In 2011 there was only one running back taken in the first round , and he was taken 28th overall. And in 2012 there were only 3 backs drafted, and 2 were there last 2 picks of the round. The decline of the RB position has tailed off steadily thanks to the likes of Ricky Williams, Cedric Benson, Ryan Mathews, TJ Duckett, Ron Dayne, and even as far back as Lawrence Phillips, Curtis Enis and Ki jana Carter. Other than the large list of first round busts at RB, it comes down to a few other factors. First , these guys have a ton of miles on the clock, often being the feature of a major college offense. You are essentially buying a new car that 80,000 miles on the clock already. The fourth running back taken in the 2012 draft was Alabama's Eddie Lacy in the second round, a back widely considered the best runner in the draft with the same skill set as former team mate and 2012 third overall pick Trent Richardson-who had an OK year but hardly worth the # 3 pick. Lacy, backing up Richardson in 2012 at Alabama had 95 carries and the year he took over as the starter he had 204 carries. In total he had about 350 carries at Alabama, Richardson's had 540 career carries. That is a lot of carries for a physical running back. The second back taken was L'evian Bell, a 240lb bruiser with 382 carries last year at Michigan State and Wisconsin's Montee Ball, the NCAA's Div I touchdown leader has a whopping 924 career carries. when they both break down in 2.6 years, teams will feel better that they only used a 2nd round draft pick and pay scale rather than a first round value. In comparison, the first running back taken, North Carolina's Giovanni Bernard, also a second rounder, only had 184 carries his last year in college. Tell me whose knees feel better right now? I say 2.6 years because the average life span for an NFL running back is 2.6 years, with the average, first string runner carrying the ball 20 times a game and there is contact on almost every play as blocker/decoy as opposed to a receiver who might touch the ball 5-7 times a game. That's an awful lot of wear and tear and bellcow runners with a ton of college carries will simply break down sooner rather than later, so teams aren't investing as much in them. just look at the declining numbers for once bellcow, 300 carry a season, top flight runners Rashad Mendenhall, Steven Jackson and Michael Turner, at some point they just wear down. Also, more teams are using running back by committee approach in a pass happy league. Case and point-during the New Orleans Saints 2009 Superbowl season, they ranked 6th in the NFL in rushing with 2,106 yards, But they did it with 4 backs, Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell, Reggie Bush and Lydell Hamilton. Not one of the backs had over 800 yards or over 200 attempts. With a few exceptions like manborg Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones Drew (but look what happened to him last year- the breakdown is starting already), few teams are pinning their ground game on one stud runner. So why spend a high draft pick on a guy and pay a guy who will essentially share carries? Heck, the round after Green Bay drafted Lacy, they drafted another highly rated runner in UCLA's Jonathan Franklin- the running back by committee plan was already part of the Packers' draft plans. That or they are simply planning for Lacy to break down sooner rather than later. Lastly, teams are simply waiting until later rounds to find a guy they can pump and dump for 2.6 years and move on. Whether it's a 6th round guy like Terrell Davis or Alfred Morris or a undrafted free agent like Pierre Thomas or Chris Ivory, the value is simply better later in the draft. You can pay a guy league minimum and when his knees both shatter, the investment is minimal and the next willing guy to give up his future ability to walk is up.