The Lost Emperor: What To Do With Fedor Emelianenko

For an entire decade, the baddest man on the planet was a soft-spoken, inscrutable, highly religious man with a nuclear right hand from the Russian country side. I am speaking of course of Fedor Emelianenko. He is the Muhammed Ali of mixed martial arts, minus the swagger. He is the T-800 terminator minus Sarah Conner. And now three losses later, he is wasting away in a nothing promotion, fighting never-will-be's and has-been's. The best that's ever lived is lost in MMA purgatory. How did this happen? And what is next? What Went Wrong Thirty three fights with no "true" losses. An entire career of sustained dominance. It is a feat unparalleled in mixed martial arts in any weight class. Legendary fights with Minotauro Nogueira (perhaps the 2nd best HW ever), Mirko CroCop, Semmy Schilt (K-1 immortal), and a list of UFC champions (Coleman x2, Randleman, Sylvia, Arlovski). Yet somehow, seemingly overnight, Fedor crashed down to earth. After three straight losses (and ample gloating from the spurned rival promotion), the myth of the indestructible man lay shattered. A weary Fedor openly contemplated retirement in the ring. Yet despite the setbacks, Fedor persists ... with what little competition exists outside of the growing Zuffa hegemony. And so the big question remains: Can Fedor still fight? The answer to that question obviously lies in his recent performances. I'm not going to start with his first loss, though. I'm actually going to look back just a bit further. His post-PRIDE days started with Adrenaline MMA, which later became Affliction. Hong-man Choi (1-0), 12-3 in K-1 & the 2005 grand prix champion Tim Sylvia (24-4), former UFC heavyweight champion x2 Andrei Arlovski (15-5), former UFC heavyweight champion Easy victories in the first round against mixed competition, mainly working from his trademark wide, looping punches and his superior Sambo submission skills. There's nothing here to raise an eyebrow about his position atop the P4P rankings. Then he moved to Strikeforce. Brett Rogers (10-0): In the scope of Fedor's career, an opponent like Brett the Grim Rogers wouldn't even move the needle. Fedor had fought better strikers, bigger men, and stronger punchers (exhibit A: Mark Hunt). Rogers was little more than a brawler with a padded record ... much in the mold of Zuluzinho. There was one big difference though. This was also Fedor's first fight in the octagon. Hold that thought, though. We'll get back to the cage in more detail in just a moment. The Rogers fight had its moments. Brett powered out of a kimura into top position and rained down massive punishment before Fedor escaped. The Russian has always possessed inhuman recovery powers throughout his career (exhibit B: the Fujita fight). The fight ended with a smashing overhand right that Rogers probably never saw ... and certainly doesn't remember. Fedor emerged bloodied, but victorious. The only note of concern (besides a broken nose) was that a journeyman like Brett took Fedor the furthest into a fight since Mirko Filipovic (2005). Was there any conceivable way that a guy like Brett the Grim Rogers takes a prime Fedor a full seven minutes to KTFO? Nope. Fabricio Werdum (13-4-1): This fight can be summed up simply by saying: it's a trap. Brazilian BJJ specialists have been doing this manuever for years. Fake a knockdown and let the opponent chase you down to the ground. In fact, Palhares did it so many times in the first round with Dan Henderson that it probably cost him a decision. That's what happened to Fedor. Yes, it was a mistake. Emelianenko has a reputation of being fearless of his enemies' strengths, such as fighting Nogueira inside his guard and staying on his feet with CroCop. It's brave and noble when it works, but foolhardy when it doesn't. This is something that Fedor's camp should have hammered home with him. Over and over and over again. Werdum posed no threat standing. None at all. His only chance to win was on the ground. But it happens. Thirty three fights is a long time to avoid a costly mistake. Antonio Silva (15-2): For the first time in his career, Fedor was entering the arena after a legitimate loss. How would he respond? In most of his fights, Fedor has danced lightly on his feet, judging his range and his opponent with the composure of a chess master. Would the Werdum fight effect him? Did his trainers help him forget about the past and reset his focus? Other than the Tim Sylvia fight (which lasted only 36 seconds), looking back at Fedor's recent, previous fights, he averaged exactly 1 punch thrown in the first 20 seconds of his matches. One punch. Calm, calculated. Against Bigfoot Silva in the first 20 seconds, he threw nine. All of them were power punches. Clearly, he was pushing. The loss stung him and he wanted to erase it from his memory with a return to form. Let's re-examine the octagon factor that I brought up above and how it might affect Fedor's style. Fighting in a ring vs. a cage is quite different. The primary difference is the application of Greco-Roman. In PRIDE for instance, there were essentially two positions - standing or grounded. In American MMA, there's a third - pressing into the fence. In a ring, you can tie up while standing, but those instances are relatively short, either separating or going the ground. You cannot drive your opponent into a stalled position. If you tried, you'd go right through the ropes and onto the judges' table. Greco is the most physically taxing aspect of mixed martial arts, grinding out a position against the cage. Muscle against muscle in prolonged, isometric hell. Randy Couture was legendary for breaking down his opponents with his wall-n-stall tactics en route to a finish or decision. In this position, larger opponents gain a significant advantage with their mass and weight, leaning in on their opponent. Throughout his career, Fedor averaged ~235 pounds. And not exactly a shredded 235 either. He is a tiny heavyweight by today's standards, where the big boys routinely have to cut weight just to make the maximum limit. In this fight, he weighed in 230 pounds. Bigfoot Silva on the other hand cut down to 265 and according to the ringside announcers he was up to 285 pounds by fight time, a +50 lb. weight advantage. And looking at the size difference between the two fighters, I absolutely believe them. After weathering the initial storm, Bigfoot started to use his size and weight. He stalled Fedor against the cage extensively in the first round. Strangely, Fedor lingered at the end of the round with his back on the cage, happy to exchange with such a disadvantage against an opponent with a substantial reach advantage (+9 inches). Not only did he suffer the most damage as a result, but it allowed Silva to set up a take down in the dying seconds. Round 2 saw more hyper aggressiveness from Fedor. He threw a punch immediately as the round started which Silva ducked and shot the double. Now the BJJ black belt had the much smaller Russian on the ground. In seconds, Silva had north-south, full mount, the back - basically whatever he wanted. Fedor never tried to skirt over to the cage. Never tried to wall walk. Never tried to press off the fence for a hip escape. Nothing. It's as if he had no training on the special techniques available in the cage over a traditional ring. It's as if his camp and trainers never addressed this fundamental aspect of octagon fighting, something that cage veterans have been doing for years. Bigfoot went Donkey Kong on an exhausted Fedor's face, leading to a medical stoppage after Round 2. Dan Henderson (27-8): Remember how I said Fedor was pressing after his loss? Remember how I said he normally threw only 1 punch in the first twenty seconds as he evaluated his opponent? Against, Hendo he threw 11 full power punches in the first twenty seconds. The American caught him with a left hook that paused the onslaught else I'm sure there would have been many, many more. Hendo stalled him against the cage. Yes, Dan is a great Greco-Roman wrestler, but Fedor conceded double underhooks. He never fought to improve his position, never even attempted to snake his arm through for an over-under. End result, Fedor rushed in again on a dazed Hendo, but was quickly reversed with a junior wrestling move and finished (albeit with several illegal H-bombs to the back of the head). To make things even more perplexing, for the first time in a long time Fedor was the bigger, stronger fighter. He never attempted his own wall-n-stall or his own take downs for GnP. I just have to wonder what his game plan was for this fight. The Verdict: I've watched these fights now several times with a critical eye. My overwhelming assertion is that Fedor has not lost much if anything of the skills that made him great. Because ... you can't lose what you never had. And that is a camp. A gym. A team. That's the trend of modern MMA. It started with Pat Miletic gathering together a murderer's row of top fighters in Iowa and continues to this day with Blackhouse, Brazilian Top Team, Alpha Male, Greg Jackson's, AKA, and more. Steel sharpens steel. This is how Fedor has trained for most of his career. Nostalgic, yes. Cutting edge, not exactly. None of Fedor's skills have evolved as the game has changed. He's been so elite that it has taken a long time for the closing gap of prowess to finally reveal itself. For example, he holds his hands very low and with better strikers, he takes a lot of unnecessary punishment. He's also very susceptible to freestyle wrestlers, because he has virtually no sprawl. All of these things are correctable. The truly elite skill that Fedor had, Sambo, is producing diminishing returns throughout the sport. Everyone trains submission defense now. Everyone trains jits. The days of fighting a specialist with gaps in their game (ala Choi or Schilt) are gone. When Fedor was at the height of his powers in 2004, 30% of UFC matches ended with a submission. Last year in 2011, the number is down to just 18%. In his 33 career victories, Emelianenko has 16 submission victories. He has none in the last 3 years. He still has incredible power, great speed and agility, and a damage tolerance that rivals Wolverine. The big knock on Fedor is that he has remained stagnant. The man lives like a monk in the Russian wilderness with not a single elite fighter in his camp. No one there can challenge him. No one there can teach him. The reasons for his losses are not because he's lost his chin (Wanderlei), his fighting spirit (Penn), or his speed (Crocop). His losses are almost completely attributable to a lack of strategy. If Greg Jackson was in Fedor's corner, would he dive into Werdum's guard? Or fail to train cage tactics for Bigfoot? Or rush out like a mad man against Hendo? Hell no. Thankfully, he is making small changes to his training, such as visiting Golden Glory in Holland. And, despite vastly inferior competition, his composure has returned and his boxing looks much cleaner. I have hope that Fedor can add to his legacy. The Next Step Fedor's management team under the 'genius' of Vadim Finkelstein has burned every bridge back into mainstream MMA. And yes, Finkelstein is actually a real name. Rather than allowing Fedor the athletic honesty to put his skills into the biggest spotlight and best competition, M-1 Global insisted on co-promotion. They literally laughed in Dana's face when he presented them the largest contract the UFC has ever offered. And with those three losses, Fedor is no longer the draw he once was to the rest of the world. Outside of Russia, the haters have lined up on all sides to criticize everything from his record, to his heart, to his future. If Fedor wishes to keep fighting, and the Monson and Ishi fight indicate that he does, then he really only has three options. #1 - Stay the Course: In other words, keep fighting on the outside of the UFC monopoly, with M-1 Global as the primary sponsor or as a co-promoter. Let's assume that Fedor, who is 35, has three more years of real competition left ... or about 8 fights. Whatever is done, Emelianenko needs a big step up. I mean he gave his last opponent a cerebral edema. True story. The competition is sparse, but I think there are a few names out there that make sense. Bobby Lashley (8-1): this fight is already reportedly in discussion. It could draw interest because Lashely, despite have the gas tank of a 1960s moped, is a big name back in the States and has shown decent lay-n-pray skills. MMA fans hate this guy, so it's a win-win if he gets pummeled, right? Anthony "Rumble" Johnson (14-4): Johnson is a BIG middleweight. His last fight he missed weight by 11 pounds. He walks around at 220 or 230, which is perfect - that's what Fedor walks around at! Don't you love a coincidence? And AJ was recently cut from the UFC. Make it a catch weight fight like Hendo and let's go. Shamil Abdurahimov (12-2): An unheralded Russian that took a minor set back with a recent loss, but is comparable in skill set and size to Fedor. Josh Barnett (31-5): Currently, Barnett is under contract with Strikeforce, but they've essentially scuttled the entire HW division and Barnett has openly feuded with Dana White multiple times. So there is a chance he won't make the transition to the UFC. This would be the biggest coup for the Fedor camp as Barnett is legitimately a Top 10 HW. James Thompson (16-14): Another big guy with a semi-sellable name. Thompson has been ... well ... crap as of late, compiling a 4-12 (1) record in his last seventeen. Cole Konrad (8-0): Konrad is the current Bellator HW champion and a dominant wrestler. He's big, he's undefeated. So why not? Todd Duffee (6-2): former UFC fighter with good hands. Paul Buentello (29-14): Buentello is a charmless slugger that is always game to mix it up. Not the most exciting fight, but the barrel is pretty empty. Bob Sapp (11-9): Just kidding. Or am I? And for Fedor's final fight, his retirement match ... Brock Lesnar (5-3): Yeah, I said it! I know that this is a huge reach. At some point, Brocks' UFC contract is going to expire. Maybe 2 years? Maybe in 4 years? Whenever it does, M-1 Global should be waiting at his doorstep with a truckload of money to offer. It would be the biggest fight Finkelstein has ever conceived ... and judging that Brock's head was already out the door when he fought Overeem, maybe in a few years he'll step back in a payday. These are options, true, but is anyone really that excited to see Fedor fight on the MMA's version of the meat market? #2 - Path of Humility: The only real opportunities at heavyweight lie in the UFC. For Fedor to regain that opportunity, he'll have to sever ties with M-1 Global. It's the only way Dana doesn't slam the phone down in a laughing rage and immediately tweet about it. Would Fedor do this? He wouldn't, of course. He's a superstar, a legend, and he's a co-owner of M-1. I know all of this ... but I'm a fan and I want to see him fight JDS, Cain, Overeem, Carwin, Mir, and more. I'll admit I'm selfish. This is not about Fedor. This is about me. I want, I want, I want. Okay, I feel better. Reinvention: Finally, the option that I personally think is best. Fedor needs to reshape himself to fit the modern world of MMA. He needs to join a camp with elite strikers and wrestlers, a camp such as American Kickboxing Academy. He'd train alongside Cain Velasquez, Daniel Cormier, Lavar Johnson, and Cung Le. And now for the big one. There is no weight class between 205 and 265, so the in-betweeners like Fedor (and Couture) are kinda screwed. They either have to fight giants at a huge disadvantage (such as 50 pounds) or cut down to 205 for Light Heavyweight. But here's the thing, Fedor is not a true 230. He's carrying Santa's belly. He's never had washboard abs. He hardly even looks like an athlete. Again, nostalgic, but not contemporary. Fedor needs to cut down to 205. He must cut down. I want him to remain relevant. I want him to get his second wind and string together another 10 meaningful fights against real competition. The Bigfoot fight illustrates that he's too disadvantaged against the modern HW, who possess real skill to accompany their strength and power. C'mon, Fedor. Do it for me. Do it for the fans. Can you just imagine what Fedor could do if he looked like this ...