Here's When AEW Dynamite Could Start Beating WWE Raw Every Week (Report)

Dave Meltzer has published an extensive study into professional wrestling television numbers in this week's Wrestling Observer Newsletter, forecasting where the business could be heading over the next few years.

The writeup compares key ratings information on a year-to-year basis, looking at how WWE Raw, SmackDown, and NXT, as well as AEW Dynamite, have fared over the past two months compared to where they were 12 months prior. It produces some interesting results.

Meltzer begins in mid-November 2020. This gives a big enough window to identify trends but omits the "beginners luck" weeks experienced by NXT, Dynamite, and SmackDown on their new networks in October 2019, which brought artificially high numbers. Other shows that would lead to misleading numbers (like AEW's Brodie Lee tribute and Sting debut episodes, as well as Raw Legends Night, the 18 and 25 December episodes of SmackDown, etc.) were also omitted.

On a year-to-year basis, within this window, the WWE shows experienced the following declines:-

Raw: 23.9% in the 18-49 demographic (P18-49), 19.2% in overall viewership (P2+)

SmackDown: 16.7% (P18-49), 7.7% (P2+)

NXT: 37% (P18-49), 17.2% (P2+)

The average cable decline is around 8%, so Raw and NXT are both experiencing steeper declines in overall viewership.

AEW Dynamite, on the other hand, is growing, posting a 20.0% increase in P18.49 and 10.5% in P2+.

If these trends continue on their current path, this would mean AEW Dynamite consistently outperforming WWE Raw in the key 18-49 demo (which the television industry uses to rank cable shows) by November or December 2022. Average P18-49 numbers would sit something around the following:-

Raw: 0.39

SmackDown: 0.50

NXT: 0.11

Dynamite: 0.43

Trends can change, of course. There is no guarantee that the current ones will continue through 2022, as things like fans returning post-COVID will impact the figures, though this is how things are forecasted to play out based on the current situation.

AEW's first ratings victory over Raw came in December, when Dynamite's 0.45 rating outdid WWE's record-low 0.41. That feat is yet to be repeated.