Before you roll your eyes at yet another Academy Awards post, let me hook you by the promise that this article is guaranteed to be at least somewhat divisive as well as an enticing combination of facts-based and subjective. So let me encourage you now to start figuring out in what ways you’re going to argue with me in the comments section.
When it comes to Best Actress, the Oscars skew younger dramatically more than with the male counterparts. The average age of a Best Actress winner is 35 and a half, which is almost a decade younger than Best Actor winners. We could debate the reasons for this, but clearly youth and beauty play a part in not only who wins that golden statuette, but who gets the juicy roles that lead to awards recognition.
Yes, Meryl Streep won last year (probably at least in part a “career win”), but Natalie Portman won the year before. For any example of a mature woman being recognized, I’ll give you three examples of…what’s the opposite of mature in this case… puerile? actresses giving an acceptance speech.
OK, let’s set some ground rules. To be included in the following list an actress must be 35 or under. I picked this age because it approaches but doesn’t necessarily fully envelop the average age of previous best actress winners; it allows me to include the person I’ve ranked #2 on my list (she’ll turn 36 next month); and it allows me to keep thinking of myself as young (if only for a very finite amount of time). This stipulation does eliminate one woman who would otherwise have been at the top of the list: Amy Adams as she is already 38. Also, the actress can’t have previous won an Oscar, which eliminates the aforementioned Ms. Portman, but they can have been nominated.
Now, let me get out in front of some potential controversy by giving a few examples of actresses I’ve not included that may seem like obvious choices. First of all, I was blown away by Quvenzhané Wallis’s performance in Beasts of a Southern Wild. And she made history by becoming the youngest best actress nominee. I’ve not included her in this list because I don’t think she is going to win this year, and I want to wait until she’s had a few more successful roles before I consider her a shoe in for future glory.
For all I know, she may go the way of Keisha Castle-Hughes and all but disappear after leaping to fame in an Academy Award nominated role. I’m also not including some previous young nominees, like Keira Knightley, Hailee Steinfeld, and Anna Kendrick, because they haven’t made a pattern of earning awards-worthy roles in the years since their nominations. This is certainly not to say that they can’t or won’t, or even that I don’t want them to, but simply that I don’t see the pattern emerging that would lead them to certain recognition.
The last three actresses I eliminated from this list (I was tempted to go beyond 10) were Chloë Grace Moretz, Emily Blunt, and Dakota Fanning. I wouldn’t be surprised if any or all of these young women earned academy gold before long, but I deleted Chloë because she’s not yet made enough awards-bait films (Hugo notwithstanding), and I removed Emily because she’s not yet seemed to have earned A-list status with some of the heavy-hitting critic groups (she has received some Golden Globe recognition). I axed Dakota because I felt like there was only space for one Fanning on this list and I think her little sister has a better shot now.
Finally, you won’t find Anne Hathaway here because on Sunday she will be an Oscar recipient. That may seem like cheating, but she is the surest bet this cycle so I’m using her spot in the top ten for someone else.
And with that, let’s look at the 10 young actresses most likely to one day soon earn an Academy Award.
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12 Comments
Good list. I agree with all the choices. I especially agree with the Carey Mulligan inclusion – shes’s definitely someone to watch.
Anthony, I’m glad you’re on board with Carey. With Gatsby’s release being delayed, it’s felt too long since we last got to see her on screen!
Well to be honest dahling. I can’t see how you can say Keira Knightley hasn’t had any award-worthy roles when she certainly had more than some of the ones mentioned. She got a Golden Globe nomination for Atonement, worked with David Cronenberg and even though her performance in Anna Karenina didn’t materialize to award traction she earned good reviews and the film managed several Oscar nominations.
I’m glad you brought that up, Jesper. I’ve had a lot of the same thoughts regarding Keira. I think I didn’t stick her on this list less because of the roles she’s getting and more because it seems like her star is waning a bit. A few years ago she was a really hot item and for some reason it seems like she’s not in the public consciousness as much anymore. And I do think that has an effect on her chances at major awards. I wouldn’t mind if she proved me wrong, it just doesn’t feel inevitable that she will soon work herself into Oscar talk again.
well that’s true though, I also feel she lost a lot of momentum, especially this year when her turn in Anna Karenina didn’t become the frontrunner expected.
Seems good though that she’s stepping out of the corsets with Can a Song Save Your Life? and Jack Ryan. She needs to mix things up a little.
I agree completely, Jesper. I’ve seen Keira’s potential since she was bending soccer balls. It would be great to see her regain some of the notoriety she’s had and seemingly lost.
Well, as usual after reading your reviews, I now have some movies to watch that I obviously have missed. Your comments about younger women being more likely to win Oscars is a little distressing, even though true, because there are so many wonderfully mature actresses out there deserving of the nod.
Thanks for the support, Brenda. I agree that it’s disappointing that ageism plays a part of Hollywood. I was actually thinking about this as it relates to Jennifer Lawrence’s character in Silver Linings Playbook. There was nothing really in the script that would have prevented Tiffany from being 10+ years Pat’s senior instead of junior. Taking nothing away from Lawrence’s performance (because she did an amazing job), but why don’t we more often see that movie. Is there a Mrs. Robinson curse that I’m not aware of? Would SLP have been a lesser movie if Tiffany had been 50 instead of 22?
An intriguing and enjoyable list — all seem like excellent actresses making quality film choices. …..but did you notice that each of the ten is white and from an English-speaking country? Over the past seven years, 18 out of the 70 of female Oscar acting nominees have been minorities or ESL speakers — that is, over a quarter of them. And 5 of the 12 winners so far fall into the same category. That’s one win away from being half!
So it seems as though the list is in want of some diversity. It’s harder to predict minority nominees because there’s such a dearth of quality roles for them, so they often feel like they “come out of nowhere.” But usually they don’t, of course — they’re just making do with slim pickings. And aren’t lists like this all about being bold?
Zoe Saldana could easily have made her way on here — she’s got six movies coming up, including playing Nina Simone in the upcoming biopic about her (and we know how the Oscars love biopics). But shoot, there are so many excellent young minority actresses out there — Freida Pinto, Keke Palmer, Maggie Q, Mila Kunis, and Meagan Good, just to name a few. What other minority actresses would make your extended list?
David, thank you for making this point. I’m surprised (impressed) at the stats regarding minorities and non-native English speakers for best actress. I immediately think of Halle Berry and Marion Cotillard as examples of each, but then have to work a little harder to think of others. The examples of young actresses you’ve included are quality. Zoe was getting some awards season buzz for her work on Avatar, so she must be talented if she can earn that sort of recognition while being transformed into a blue giant. And Mila easily could have been nominated for Black Swan (though until you said something, I’m not sure I would have recognized her as being a minority).
Your challenge of creating my own list of actresses that fit these classifications is a good one. Coincidentally, I was really considering including Rinko Kikuchi in my article. She, obviously, already has one (well-deserved) Oscar nomination to her credit for Babel, and I would love to see her recognized again. The reason I stopped short of mentioning her is because I really haven’t followed her other career moves. I believe the only other film I’ve seen her in was The Brothers Bloom, in which she did well enough, but certainly wasn’t in line for awards.
Obviously Quvenzhané Wallis could again be an easy choice, but I’ve expressed my reservations about her. Gabourey Sidibe is still a young woman and is a former nominee, but hasn’t yet struck gold again.
While she’s about a year too old for my qualifications, Rashida Jones may one day earn some Oscar love.
I’ll keep thinking about this and let you know if I come up with other good entries.
This is a great list and agree with all your choices and even your exclusions. I’m SO glad you included Mia Wasikowska! My only complaint is that she should have been higher on ther list. I have no argument for that other than I love her so much! I first saw her on Season One of HBO’s In Treatment, and she knocked my socks off. She is one of those actors where I will see anything she’s in, knowing nothing else about the film. I could say the same for most of the actresses on your list as well. Once again, great list!
Grin…I’m glad you’re a Mia fan–I am likewise, though I’ve actually not seen her part of In Treatment. Her inclusion on this list really owes more to the roles she’s selected and the films she’s been in. At this point she’s (surprisingly) not earned a lot of awards buzz, but I think it’s only a matter of time.