5. The Immigrant
Possible categories: Best Picture, Best Director (James Gray), Best Actor (Jeremy Renner), Best Supporting Actor (Joaquin Phoenix), Best Original Screenplay (James Gray and Ric Menello), Best Cinematography, Best Production Design
Likely categories: Best Actress (Marion Cotillard) This film has been receiving a lot buzz, some even considering it a serious Oscar contender, and I'm not entirely sure why. While director James Gray has his band of devotees (particularly the French) for his previous four feature films, he has not achieved a very significant level of success in his home country. He has competed at Cannes before, but this honor did not really raise his profile level that significantly. Even working with a cast like Joaquin Phoenix, Mark Wahlberg, Robert Duvall, and Eva Mendes, with a relatively accessible plot involving cops and criminals in his 2007 feature, We Own the Night, did not garner him much attention from awards bodies in the States. For whatever reason though, there seems to be the palpable noise of anticipation surrounding his next movie, The Immigrant, and since perception often becomes reality, this may just be the movie to make James Gray a recognized name in the U.S. The Immigrant tells the story of a newly arrived female resident of Manhattan(Marion Cotillard), by way of Poland and through Ellis Island, in the year 1920. The immigrant quickly falls under the spell of a pimp (Joaquin Pheonix) who forces her into prostitution. Living a seemingly hopeless life, the woman finds purpose in a relationship with a magician that happens to be her pimp's cousin (Jeremy Renner). The magician quickly falls in love with the girl, promising to take her away and give her a new and better life. My instincts and common sense tell me that this is quite the stretch to be a serious contender for Best Picture. Meanwhile, both lead and supporting male acting categories are likely to be filled with shinier objects unless either Renner or Phoenix deliver one hell of a performance, so the film's likeliest and best chance at Oscar glory will come in the form of a Best Actress nomination for Marion Cotillard. She'll have to receive some great notices though, as even her terrific, well-reviewed performance at Cannes last year, in Jacques Audiard's Rust and Bone, couldn't quite make the cut with the Academy. Cannes debut: Friday, May 24