2. Fruitvale Station
Possible categories: Best Director (Ryan Coogler), Best Supporting Actress (Octavia Spencer), Best Original Screenplay (Ryan Coogler)
Likely categories: Best Picture, Best Actor (Michael B. Jordan) Fruitvale Station (formerly known as Fruitvale) was the toast of Sundance. Winner of both the Audience Award and the Grand Jury Prize, while other films got some good press out of Park City, there is no question as to which film emerged as the most prominent potential contender for this year's coming awards season. This is important because over the last few years, the biggest films coming out of Sundance have reaped the rewards with the Academy. Whether it be Precious, Winter's Bone, The Kids Are All Right, or last year's Beast of the Southern Wild, trend analysis would tell us Fruitvale Station is a film we need to keep an eye on. The key in deducing whether Fruitvale Station will be a flash in the pan or a serious contender may largely depend on how it is received at Cannes. To compare, last year at this time Beasts of the Southern Wild had gotten a lot of love out of Sundance, but it was not yet clear if the film was just a nice little indie flick, or something that would make a wider impact across the scope of cinema. It was only after its positive showing at Cannes (as well as its subsequent mid-summer release), which reinforced and amplified the well-received reputation the film had earned coming out of Sundance, that we knew we had a legitimate Oscar contender on our hands. This is why Fruitvale Station's reception at Cannes is so crucial to its awards prospects. The film is playing in the Un Certain Regard lineup, so it won't be eligible for the Palme d'Or, but this is not so important. What is important is the general critical consensus that forms around the film after its showing. If it garners a lot buzz and conversation out of France, we'll know the film will be a serious contender, if it doesn't reach the critical mass level of buzz, the film will have to make a huge impression in the States as it slowly roles out in theaters this summer. Fruitvale Station, if you haven't heard already, tells the true story of Oscar (Michael B. Jordan), a young African-American male resident of Oakland, CA. On New Year's Eve 2008, he was shot by Bay Area police, which caused quite the uproar in the community. Given the somewhat controversial subject matter of the movie, its critical reception will be doubly important in determining its fate. Some people have been calling it a pretender, others have declared it a contender, either way, we will probably know soon enough. Cannes debut: Thursday, May 16