Dune: 5 Reasons It Will Be A Massive Hit (And 5 Reasons It Will Flop)
4. It'll Flop: Lack Of Brand Recognition
Dune is one of the best-selling sci-fi novels of all-time. Since its debut in 1965, generations of sci-fi fans have discovered the book, giving it tremendous staying power, but how much do moviegoers at large even know about the franchise? Outside of the infamous 1984 flop, and a generally well-received television mini-series from the early 2000s, Dune doesn't have much of a presence in the world of movies and television.
Dune 1984 has a cult following but cult followings do not always translate into mega-blockbuster success. These days, studios are gun-shy about releasing any major blockbuster unless it is part of a recognizable IP. There is a reason that Marvel keeps making big money despite the franchise dominating the box office for the last decade and change: familiarity is a safe bet for studios.
Dune has tremendous potential but if it wants to realize this potential, audiences have to fall in love with the first movie. While elements of the story are familiar thanks to the creative debt Star Wars owes it, this is an entirely different beast altogether, wholly unique in its worldbuilding and approach to its sci-fi material.
In the era of branding and franchise-building, Dune is already working at a disadvantage. It won't have the massive built-in audience that the more familiar brands of Marvel and Star Wars had. New converts will have to be won over to give it the same cache, otherwise it will remain an obscure, cult curio in the cinemas.