1. The Hunt (Denmark)2. The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)3. The Grandmaster (Hong Kong)4. Omar (Palestine)5. The Great Beauty (Italy)(Alt: Two Lives (Germany)) From the numerous entries in this category, a selected committee votes for their favorites, and then based on these votes (as well as a few saves from the Special Executive Committee), nine are short-listed out of which five will finally be nominated. The countries that made the short-list this year are Belgium (The Broken Circle Breakdown), Bosnia and Herzegovina (An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker), Cambodia (The Missing Picture), Denmark (The Hunt), Germany (Two Lives), Hong Kong (The Grandmaster), Hungary (The Notebook), Italy (The Great Beauty), and Palestine (Omar). Out of all of these, the only one I feel is definitely in is Denmark's The Hunt. Historically, melodramatic films with a humanist bent to them do very well in this category, so from the reviews and synopsis of the film, Belgium's The Broken Circle Breakdown is a likely nominee. The category has been open to slightly more populist films as of late, so this combined with reverence for Wong Kar-Wai's previous films, and I think The Grandmaster gets a surprise nomination, although many pundits disagree. I do agree though with most other Oscar forecasters that Palestine's Omar will likely make the cut, as the Middle-East conflict between Israel and Palestine seems to be a never ending source of cinematic gold for members of the branch. The last spot gets a bit tricky, but I'm going to go with The Great Beauty. First, Italy has had more nominations than any other country in the history of the category (27). Second, the Cannes-premiering film is easily the highest regarded among critics, winning Best Picture from the European equivalent of the Oscars and appearing on numerous prestigious top ten lists. This doesn't always translate to a guaranteed nomination, but when the buzz continues to mount, sometimes the pressure is enough to push it through. Finally, the film is said to be an homage to some of the work of Fellini, one of the most successful directors in the history of the category (as well as generally, receiving twelve Oscar nominations throughout his legendary career), which may be just enough to tip the last spot in its favor.
A film fanatic at a very young age, starting with the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle movies and gradually moving up to more sophisticated fare, at around the age of ten he became inexplicably obsessed with all things Oscar. With the incredibly trivial power of being able to chronologically name every Best Picture winner from memory, his lifelong goal is to see every Oscar nominated film, in every major category, in the history of the Academy Awards.
