1. Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave2. Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle3. June Squibb - Nebraska4. Julia Roberts - August: Osage County5. Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine(Alt: Oprah Winfrey - Lee Daniels' The Butler) In terms of depth, Best Supporting Actress is usually the antithesis of Best Supporting Actor, and unfortunately, the field is pretty shallow once again this year. There are only two woman who actually have a chance of winning the award, and that's newcomer Lupita Nyong'o (who I honestly think has already won the award) and current IT Girl and last year's Best Actress winner, Jennifer Lawrence. Beyond that, we have what should be pretty secure nominations with June Squibb in Nebraska and Julia Roberts in August: Osage County. If the field was more competitive, and if the Academy's reception of August: Osage County was particularly lukewarm, I could see Roberts missing out, but given this year's field, and the Academy's love of Roberts personally, she's safely in the lineup. We then have one spot left open for Best Supporting Actress. Most people are going with Oprah Winfrey in Lee Daniels' The Butler, and that's definitely the safe (and probably smart) pick to make. However, while The Butler proved incredibly popular with SAG, I believe it may be one of those early release movies that does well with the Screen Actors Guild, but falls by the wayside with the more discerning Academy. If this is the case though, we need a viable alternative. One possible alternative would be Margo Martindale in August: Osage County, but I don't believe the Academy is fond of the movie enough to nominate it for two performances in the same category. Many critics have been citing Scarlett Johansson's voice-only wok in Her as Best Supporting Actress, but there is no way at this point in time the Academy is going to nominate a performance where the actor has no physical presence. Octavia Spencer was a name that bandied about for her performance in Fruitvale Station, but since Oprah Winfrey's movie covers slightly similar subject matter (civil rights), my guess is Academy members would just go with Winfrey over Spencer. The person that I believe though that can pull off the upset come Thursday morning is left-field candidate Sally Hawkins. Hawkins hasn't done too well in the circuit thus far, only receiving a nod from the Hollywood Foreign Press who has shown a proclivity toward Ms. Hawkins in the past when the Academy hasn't, but I'm actually betting on her more because of Woody Allen than Hawkins herself. Throughout the history of the Academy Awards, actresses who have appeared in Woody Allen movies have done very well. In fact, there may be no director in the history of the Academy Awards who has been as successful directing his female thespians to Oscar recognition than Woody Allen. Considering this, and the fact that I believe Blue Jasmine will be more popular with the Academy than Lee Daniels' The Butler, Ms. Hawkins may very well pull a Jacki Weaver and sneak in the final Best Supporting Actress lineup.
A film fanatic at a very young age, starting with the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle movies and gradually moving up to more sophisticated fare, at around the age of ten he became inexplicably obsessed with all things Oscar. With the incredibly trivial power of being able to chronologically name every Best Picture winner from memory, his lifelong goal is to see every Oscar nominated film, in every major category, in the history of the Academy Awards.
