8. Argo
In Ben Affleck's third directing endeavor, Argo recounts the true story of the efforts taken to rescue 6 Americans who escaped militants in Iran in 1979, following the United States' protection of the Shah. Hidden by the Canadian ambassador for nearly three months, the six young Americans must find a way to flee the country safely before their absence in the group of 52 other hostages at the Embassy is noticed. Affleck, who not only directs but stars as the CIA operative Tony Mendez, mixes narratives of the desperation of the hostages, the anger of the Iranians and the CIA's plot to bring the stranded Americans home. Told like a heist film, we follow the CIA agents as they entertain ideas of providing the Americans with bikes, or posing them as teachers abroad. But when those ideas prove to be theoretically flawed, a seemingly insane notion is suggested: create a fake movie which is to be filmed in Iran and usher the captives home with new identities. While the story itself sounds too absurd to be true, the fact that it
is true (re-iterated by the film as it bookends the narrative with storyboards in the opening credits and a commentary by President Jimmy Carter over the end credits) makes the whole scheme that much more fascinating. And following his other two successful films, Affleck again shows in Argo that he's capable of making a fun and suspenseful thriller. The film, of course, isn't perfect. There are a few too many moments in which we're given overt commentary by the characters within the picture. For whatever reason, Argo often tries to hold our hand to help us consider the moral and ethical implications of the actions between the United States and Iran, conundrums that the audience has already considered within the first few minutes of the film. Similarly, some of the suspenseful moments feel a bit contrived, particularly with a quasi-chase scene featured at the end of the film. But regardless of these minor flaws, the movie overall succeeds in telling a truly bizarre tale of international relationships.
Why It Will Win: Unlike Zero Dark Thirty, it's a relatively safe choice. Also, Affleck's DGA win bodes well.
Why It Won't Win: The last time a movie won Best Picture without scoring a Best Director nomination was 1989's Driving Miss Daisy. Regardless, don't be surprised if that record is re-set this year.