4. Lincoln
Lincoln combines one of my favorite directors, a Pulitzer-award winning writer in Tony Kushner and acting machine Daniel Day-Lewis to portray one of the most beloved figures in the history of the world. So am I being a heretic in only somewhat liking this film? Don't get me wrong, Daniel Day-Lewis - once again - puts on a legendary performance. Never having had the opportunity to see Lincoln speak in real life, I can say without a doubt that Daniel Day-Lewis plays a perfect honest Abe. Spielberg combines the sleek and suspenseful middle act of the court-room drama of the film with beautiful cinematography combining various shades of light and dark, with Lincoln peeking in and out of the shadows. But the script outside of the solid middle feels bloated. The film opens with a black soldier speaking with Lincoln about the racial inequalities between the soldier's pay. He walks away from America's 16th president while reciting from his Gettysburg address in a scene so in your face that it nearly gives you a black eye. Later in the film, after the thirteenth amendment passes thereby abolishing slavery in the States, another entire act follows, ultimately resulting in Lincoln's death as men stand over him reiterating his greatness as a man. The problem with this is that 99% of the audience is already on board with Lincoln being a great man going into the film. That small percent who didn't have a priori positive views on Lincoln were likely convinced by the first two hours of the film which depicts his struggles in trying to help move racial equality forward in America. Restating this theme at the end is nauseatingly redundant. And speaking of nauseating, while Daniel Day-Lewis puts on an acting clinic in this film, many of the other performances do not come near his efforts. Tommy Lee Jones puts on an admirable, if not at times too exaggerated, performance. But when it was announced that Spielberg was making a biopic on Abraham Lincoln, everyone who knew anything about film knew that this movie was a shoo-in for an Oscar nomination, and many of the other actors in the film appear to be acting out in order to gain their nominations. And the Academy rewarded the worst offender in this film with a Best Supporting Actress nod. Overall, the film is certainly worth watching for Daniel Day-Lewis and Spielberg's craft, but the film would have benefited from having entire sections lopped off of its beginning and end. Within those bookends, however, lies a film which at times verges on masterpiece.
Why It Will Win: Beloved director, actors, writer, and subject.
Why It Won't Win: Court-room dramas have fared poorly in past Oscars. That being said, don't be surprised if this one takes home the gold.