2. Guy Pearce - Lawless
Every great film like Lawless needs a great villain, and though the moral boundaries of the Bondurant story were blurred by the illegality of both sides' activities, Pearce's Charlie Rakes was the perfect answer to that need. Because of the nature of the story, Rakes had to be a super-villain, worse in every way to the Bondurants, no matter how bad they got in the name of their business, and the almost total transformation Pearce underwent for the role, plus the intensity of his performance more than managed it. In Pearce's hands Rakes was disgusting, and profoundly volatile, his effeminate physicality belying an undercurrent so viscious and inhumane his greatest crimes - against women - could only be hinted at in even the most glaringly violent film of the year. He was a pantomime villain, certainly, but the performance was measured and perfectly executed, and Rakes was probably the single most successful screen villain of the year.
Why The Snub? It's simply a matter of maths - Pearce's performance may have been profoundly affecting in the film, and wholly unexpected given his past performances, but there are just too many of the type of performances that will be rewarded by nominations for this to make the final shortlist. And the genre probably doesn't help matters.