The 2022 Oscar nominations are due to be announced bright and early on February 8th, and with the major precursor awards having already revealed their nominees, we're able to make some pointed, educated guesses at who the Academy might decide to honour in the coming days.
We're at an interesting nexus point for the Academy Awards, where viewership has plummeted to record-low levels in recent years due to a perceived lack of "relevance," amid criticisms it's not diverse enough and champions excessively "niche" films the general public doesn't care about.
It'll be fascinating to see whether or not this ends up impacting the 2022 nominees much: if the precursor awards are any indication it probably won't result in a late surge of love for Spider-Man: No Way Home, but you never know.
If previous years have proven anything, it's that there's always the possibility for a surprise nomination or two, and hopefully this year's slate will continue to further the Academy's efforts to diversify the artists it recognises.
With that in mind, here's who the smart money says will get their names called on February 8th...
21. Best Supporting Actress
Caitríona Balfe (Belfast)
Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
Ruth Negga (Passing)
Four of the five slots here feel pretty much sewn up, so it's really just a matter of considering whether Ruth Negga (Passing) or Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) will take the last one.
Given that Ellis surprisingly missed out on a SAG nomination, Negga is probably the safe bet - especially as her film is available on Netflix - though don't be totally shocked if Ellis sneaks in.
Any other possibilities - Ann Dowd (Mass), Marlee Matlin (CODA), Rita Moreno (West Side Story), Judi Dench (Belfast), or Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter) - are fringe at best.