2. A Draw Gives Hope For Ukraine, Poland, and Moldova
As it currently stands, Montenegro and England are heads and shoulders above the competition. Ukraine, Poland, and Moldova are essentially hoping for either England or Montenegro to slow down to a point they can catch up to and overtake. Considering that draws limit the maximum amount of points of opponents within the group and many games remaining, a draw is the ideal result for other teams in the group Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts Montenegro 5 4 1 0 13 2 11 13 England 5 3 2 0 20 2 18 11 Ukraine 4 1 2 1 4 3 1 5 Poland 4 1 2 1 6 6 0 5 Moldova 5 1 1 3 2 8 -6 4 San Marino 5 0 0 5 0 24 -24 0 The average point total of 2nd place teams of the 6 team UEFA groups was 20 for the 2010 FIFA World Cup Qualification. Using that metric, Moldova has the slimmest of possibilities, needing to win out to achieve that benchmark. Ukraine and Poland are also long shots, maxing out at a potential of 23 points. Luckily, they both have two matches against San Marino remaining, so at least one may not hit 23 (They do have one match against each other), 20 points is not out of the question. Yet. A draw in this match (in addition to a win for Ukraine and Poland over Moldova and San Marino respectively), means it is a four-team race. In the best case scenario for either Ukraine or Poland, they win out against San Marino (6 pts) and Moldova (3 pts). A win against Montenegro (3 pts) and a win against the other (3 pts) gets them to that 20 point threshold regardless of what happens in their final match against England. Yes Montenegro is tough, but in both matches, the result was close. A 2-2 draw for Poland and a 1-0 loss in Kiev for Ukraine. It is certainly possible.