It's fair to say that the box office guessing game is ultimately just a roll of the dice - after all, who expected Venom to easily double the worldwide gross of Solo: A Star Wars Story last year?
But at the same time, there are some undeniable sure things in life - Avengers: Endgame will almost certainly be a good movie and definitely end up a stonking box office hit, while Hellboy will probably be a bad movie and also a commercial flop.
And then there are films that won't be any good, but because there's no accounting for mainstream taste, they'll still turn a healthy profit regardless...
10. Dark Phoenix
Release Date: June 7
The apparently final entry into the current core X-Men continuity, Dark Phoenix will serve as the curtain call for Fox's iteration of the superhero franchise, and if the persistent scuttlebutt is to be believed, it's a gigantic trainwreck.
Multiple test screening reports indicate the film is heading for a skewering from critics and fans alike, and an uninspired trailer hasn't done much to change the conversation.
With re-shoots undertaken late last year to try and fix some of the nagging issues, the film's budget is said to be around $200 million, in excess of X-Men: Apocalypse's $178 million. But even so, it's incredibly unlikely that Dark Phoenix is a flat-out box office dud.
After all, Apocalypse still made $543.9 million worldwide despite mixed-negative reviews, and even with the downcast response to this sequel so far, Fox has a secret weapon up their sleeve: China.
Dark Phoenix had its release date delayed just two days after the release of its first trailer, and this was due to the unexpectedly strong social media response to the film in China.
Fox is therefore banking on the region comprising a hefty chunk of its final worldwide gross no matter how it performs in the rest of the world.
And depressingly, it's probably going to pay off. Though this won't be a major smash for the franchise, it'll easily drift out of bomb territory by doubling its $200 million budget with a little extra change. And you can blame China for that one.
Stay at home dad who spends as much time teaching his kids the merits of Martin Scorsese as possible (against the missus' wishes).
General video game, TV and film nut. Occasional sports fan. Full time loon.