Originally published on my personal blog, Sammyray. 
Every snivelling bitch in the movie blog community has been writing up Oscar nomination predictions, each one with a certain level of emotion tied to it. In recent days, we've had Josh Tyler's rant over at Cinema Blend, Eugene Novikov's response over at Cinematical, and a less threatening set of picks from my buddy Matt Holmes over at Obsessed With Film ... but what did you really expect from him? He's British. Some people, like Nathaniel over at The Film Experience, have been predicting this year's Oscar winners since the end of last year's telecast. It gets a little crazy sometimes. So, in the spirit of a new American regime Presidency, I'm going to throw my two cents into the wishing well, and see what comes of it. BEST PICTURE I have this crazy feeling that we're going to see The Reader and Revolutionary Road nominated for Best Picture. For a while, I think the Kate Winslet factor was making it an either/or choice, but the buzz continues to build for Reader. I bet the picks are as follows:
Revolutionary Road The Reader Frost/Nixon Slumdog Millionaire The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Benjamin Button does not belong on this ballot, and neither does
Frost/Nixon for that matter. I get slightly ill imagining this field without
The Wrestler in it. Hopefully the Academy pulls its head out of its collective ass and gives
The Wrestler its just due.
Milk should probably be in here as well. BEST DIRECTOR In my mind, this is a one-horse race ... but I'm not even sure the Academy will nominate him.
Darren Aronofsky for The Wrestler Gus Van Sant for Milk Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire Stephen Daldry for The Reader David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Aronofsky deserves the win hands down. We shall see if he even gets the nom for this brilliant film. Meanwhile, Fincher is being overpraised for
Button, his worst film since
Alien 3. You just watch ... I bet Aronofsky gets snubbed in favor of
Sam Mendes for
Revolutionary Road.
BEST ACTOR It's a two horse race, with a third coming close but just short.
Leonardo DiCaprio for Revolutionary Road Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler Sean Penn for Milk Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon Either Josh Brolin for W. or Benicio Del Toro for Che This is Rourke's to lose, although cases could be made for both Penn, Langella, and DiCaprio. Still, Rourke wins easily here. If fucking
Clint Eastwoodgets a Best Actor nomination, I swear I am going to follow through on Lex Luthor's plans to nuke California. I get it ... he's old, he might die at any moment, and he's a legend. SO WHAT. The performance is his same old routine he's been trotting out since
Unforgiven, except that he growls more in this one. Yay.
BEST ACTRESS Here comes Kate!
Kate Winslet for Revolutionary Road Meryl Streep for Doubt Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married Cate Blanchett in The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button Kristin Scott Thomas in I've Loved You So Long Winslet is nearly assured of the win here, although Hathaway continues to gain steam. Blanchett doesn't even deserve consideration, really. From what I've heard, Scott Thomas is the deserving one in a tiny little picture that nobody's seen ... and we know what that means.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Does this one even matter? We all know that winner here.
Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight Robert Downey, Jr. in Tropic Thunder Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road Philip Seymour Hoffmann in Doubt not sure here Heath wins by a landslide. Robert Downey Jr. was just as good, though. BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis in Doubt Marisa Tomei in The Wrestler Kate Winslet in The Reader Taraji Henson in The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button Penelope Cruz in Vicky Christina Barcelona Davis has one scene, and she is devastating ... particularly against Streep's overly-mannered performance. Tomei is brilliant in
The Wrestler. Henson is also great. I don't think you're going to see a Winslet double dip at the Oscars. Of the other categories, I think these are absolute shoo-ins for a nomination or the win:
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAYVicky Christina Barcelona and
The Wrestler need to be in here. We might see
Happy-Go-Lucky here, too. I will take hostages if that piece of horseshit
Gran Torino gets in here. It doesn't deserve to be used as toilet paper, let alone a nomination.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Basically this will be a recap of most of the Best Picture nominees ...
Doubt, Slumdog Millionaire, Revolutionary Road, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.
Slumdog probably deserves this one.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHYThe Dark Knight belongs in here. So does
Benjamin Button,
Revolutionary Road, and
Doubt.
BEST SOUND / SOUND EFFECTS EDITING Face it ... they're almost the same category.
The Dark Knight easily goes here. You could make a case for
Benjamin Button and
Iron Man. However, I think
WALL-E deserves both awards hands down. I'm not a fan of
Ben Burtt after he destroyed the
Star Wars prequels, but he did an unparalleled job here.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS Oh man, I hope
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull wins it for making me believe a man can survive a nuclear blast in a fridge!! Seriously,
Button probably deserves a nom, as well as
Iron Man and
The Dark Knight. So there you have it ... my humble predictions. Let the teeth gnashing begin!!!