3. Lincoln
Steven Spielberg has already collected two Academy Awards for his directing efforts (Schindlers List and Saving Private Ryan), so he may have to wait a little longer to pick up a third for Lincoln but dont put it past him winning again. He is more likely to fend off the strong competition for Best Picture, meaning he would then have two for this category to match his directorial achievement with the Academy. The film is nominated for five of the six major awards - so as with the other favourites, the most likely surprise Lincoln gives us will be one of underachievement. Biopics tend to fare very well at the Oscars, and when the person focused on is an historical American hero and the director is arguably the finest to ever walk the earth - the film is always going to be a favourite to pick up the gong no matter what the competition may be.