Best Supporting Actor: Will Win - Tommy Lee Jones
This might be the most wide open competition of any of the big awards, but my money is on Jones. He gives a great performance in Lincoln, and the Academy voters may be anxious to throw the film more consolation prizes since it doesnt look like it will be taking home Best Picture. Jones is a great actor, and with this being his best work in years (probably since No Country for Old Men), my guess is hell be rewarded for it. The rest of the field has plenty of strength, though. Christoph Waltz won the Golden Globe for his work in Django Unchained, but its hard to think that hed win again so soon after Inglourious Basterds, especially since hes playing something of a similar character. Arkin was one of the best parts of Argo, although it feels like he and John Goodman should share the nomination based on how well they played off one another. Robert DeNiro could be a surprise winner; like Jones, DeNiros work in Silver Linings Playbook is his best in a long time (a much longer time than Jones, to be clear), and with him also being an Academy favorite, it might not be too shocking to hear his name get called.
Best Supporting Actor: Should Win - Philip Seymour Hoffman
Is it possible that Philip Seymour Hoffman is under appreciated? That were so used to seeing him be exceptional that its stopped being a big deal? Hoffman is so many different things in The Master - loving, charismatic, vicious, unforgiving - but above all he is hypnotizing. Hes able to make his following, the cult-like Cause, appealing, even attractive, though we know should know better. He draws in the audience the same way he draws in Joaquin Phoenix, and by the time we realize what he and The Cause really are, its too late. The Master was a bit too out there to earn nominations for Best Picture, Director, and Screenplay, but if nothing else, it was an absolute acting masterclass. Hoffman should be recognized for it.