4. Before Midnight
If there is one film that has been the critics cause célèbre thus far in 2013, it has been Before Midnight. If you browse the cinema-centric web for "Best of 2013 so far"" lists, you will undoubtedly find a number of them have the third film in Richard Linklater's Before trilogy sitting atop their lists. Ever since the film's premiere at Sundance back in January, Before Midnight has been a constant conversation starter among cinephiles, but the question remains, will Before Midnight remain in the minds of Academy members a full twelve months following its premiere? Many pundits have been speculating that the film could receive a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination, which isn't unreasonable given that the film's predecessor, Before Sunset, received exactly this nomination. Among the varying branches of the Academy, the writers are typically the most adventurous anyway, and Linklater's Before trilogy is, first and foremost, a triumph in writing. A Best Adapted Screenplay nomination then is a pretty distinct possibility, but the real question is, can the film come away any other above-the-line nominations? The most obvious of these would be nominations for the two lead actors. What's interesting about the performances from Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy in Before Midnight is that they do not exist in isolation, but rather in the context of their previous performances in the preceding films of the series. Coming back to these characters every nine years has allowed both actors the chance to evolve their characters and their mannerisms in fascinating ways, adding a level of depth to the performances that is simply impossible for actors to do in the typical "one-off" situation. Whether the Actors Branch sees it this way or not, I do not know, but of the two, I think Delpy has the better chance given the relatively less competitive Best Actress field.
The film may also have a shot at two of the big kahuna categories, Best Director and Best Picture. It's a shame Richard Linklater hasn't received a Best Director nomination yet, but unfortunately, I don't think Before Midnight will be the film to bring him over the finish line. On the other hand, I do think the film has a decent shot at a Best Picture nomination. Ever since the Best Picture field was expanded beyond the traditional five nominees, the artistic-leaning members of the Academy have usually been able to coalesce around one high-brow film (A Serious Man, The Tree of Life, Amour) and sneak it into the Best Picture lineup, so if Before Midnight proves to be this year's "artistic film", then it may manage the Best Picture nomination. In all truthfulness, I'm not quite as enthusiastically in love with Before Midnight as most critics seem to be, but it is a great film. Any movie that is able to achieve and portray such realistic and deep conversations deserves kudos, and this film does so in spades, so the Academy would do well not to forget it.