Barkhad Abdi for Captain Phillips Bradley Cooper for American Hustle Michael Fassbender for 12 Years a Slave Jonah Hill for The Wolf of Wall Street Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club For a long time now, this category has seemed all wrapped up by Jared Leto for his performance as a transvestite with AIDS in Dallas Buyers Club. Just recently however, there seems to be a bit more wiggle room in this category as some have pointed out how little Leto's character is given to do in the movie, while others have been extolling the virtues of the performances of some of Leto's competitors. If not Leto though, then who? It's a good question and the argument can be made for each of the other nominees. Bradley Cooper gives what I believe is the best performance of the bunch amongst a group of heavy hitters in the ensemble of American Hustle, and more and more voices have joined that chorus over the last few weeks. Michael Fassbender would get my vote among the nominees if I had a ballot, but his refusal to do any campaigning this time around will likely hurt his chances. Fans of The Wolf of Wall Street may be likely to vote for Jonah Hill, but the film is definitely more of a showcase for Leonardo DiCaprio than Hill. The one contender that actually may have the best chance of pulling off the surprise victory though is probably total newcomer Barkhad Abdi and his performance as a Somali pirate in Captain Phillips. As I have said a number of times now, I suspect there may be a lot of low-lying love under the surface for Captain Philips and Best Supporting Actor is definitely a category where the film may stun a few folks come Sunday night. For one, it's a great story to have a former limo driver-turned actor win an Academy Award on his first try, but even beyond these crude human interest stories, it is quite the good performance, and his character is given much more depth than Leto's character is. As tempting as it is to predict the upset here though, there is clearly a large constituency of Dallas Buyers Club fans in the Academy as well, and Leto's performance feels like the type of role that wins Best Supporting Actor. I suspect the race got much tighter than anyone was anticipating, and if Abdi wins I won't be too surprised, but unlike Best Supporting Actress, I'm going to stick with the favorite on the male side of things. Will Win: Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers ClubCould Win: Barkhad Abdi for Captain PhillipsShould Win: Michael Fassbender for 12 Years a Slave
A film fanatic at a very young age, starting with the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle movies and gradually moving up to more sophisticated fare, at around the age of ten he became inexplicably obsessed with all things Oscar. With the incredibly trivial power of being able to chronologically name every Best Picture winner from memory, his lifelong goal is to see every Oscar nominated film, in every major category, in the history of the Academy Awards.
