Oscars 2014: Who Is Winning The Best Actor Race?

Nomination Chances: 75%

3. Bruce Dern - Nebraska

Nebraska 40473 For me, this is where it gets difficult. While I'm confident in the first two entries prospects at a nomination, I can imagine scenarios where any of the next three contenders miss the final cut. Out of these three candidates though, I would be most surprised if Bruce Dern's name is failed to be called on January 16th. I have yet to actually see Dern's work myself, but here's what I do know. Hollywood loves to award old veterans, particularly long-suffering actors who continued to drudge on regardless of the roles they were given, and this is especially true if said actor has never received their proper moment in the sun. The synopsis just described fits Dern's narrative to a tee, as has been played up in the numerous and numerous articles and interviews written about Dern since the film's premiere at Cannes in May, and with aging Hollywood titans such as Jack Nicholson (who reportedly had a lot to do with Roman Polanski's Oscar victory in 2002) in his corner, it's hard imagining the geriatrics club that is the Academy passing up on this opportunity. Furthermore, the Academy above almost all others have been particularly friendly to the films of Alexander Payne, and his actors have often been the beneficiary. Jack Nicholson and Kathy Bates in About Schmidt, Thomas Hayden Church and Virginia Madsen in Sideways, and George Clooney in The Descendants all were directed to Oscar-nominated performances in Payne's last three movies, so it would be hard to imagine Dern (along with possibly June Squibb and Will Forte) not joining the club. If the film ends up with a Best Picture nomination (which looks likely even in this competitive field), it would become doubly difficult for the film to receive heaps of Oscar mentions without also including Dern in that group. The one thing that holds me back from whole-heartedly endorsing Dern's chances as I do for McConaughey and Ejiofor is the possibility of campaign fatigue. Dern, from all accounts, appears to be an affable fellow, but even so, the Academy can occasionally be spiteful when it comes to overexposure. And if they smell desperation and desire on you too strongly, they're libel to deny you the satisfaction you seek. Ultimately, I don't see this being the case for Dern, but it is something to keep an eye on.
Contributor
Contributor

A film fanatic at a very young age, starting with the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle movies and gradually moving up to more sophisticated fare, at around the age of ten he became inexplicably obsessed with all things Oscar. With the incredibly trivial power of being able to chronologically name every Best Picture winner from memory, his lifelong goal is to see every Oscar nominated film, in every major category, in the history of the Academy Awards.