Oscars 2014: Who Is Winning The Best Actor Race?

Nomination Chances: 40%

4. Robert Redford - All Is Lost

This, until recently, was the one "agreed upon" nomination that I felt was most on the chopping block and vulnerable to subterfuge. The performance is almost entirely silent, with Redford barely utterly a syllable (save for a profanity or two), which isn't usually a positive in the eyes of Oscar. In fact, even though Redford is forced to accomplish harrowing tasks under incredible duress while stranded at sea, much of the film is spent watching Redford complete rather mundane things. Patch a hole here, cook a meal there, read a book on the couch. This sort "performance through living" technique may be something that appeals to more avant-garde savvy critics, but it isn't the type of thing that is usually up the Academy's alley. On the other hand, Redford is a Hollywood legend, who only has one acting nomination to his name, so you have to believe there are many colleagues who would jump at the opportunity to give him a nice pat on the back (unless he happens to be secretly hated by his peers). However, Redford, unlike others (cough*Bruce Dern*cough), hasn't exactly been blazing the campaign trail. While some may see letting your performance speak for itself as admirable, the fact is that facetime with Academy members really does make a difference, particularly in a year as competitive as this, and with one "let's reward an old Hollywood veteran" option already available to Academy members this year, they may decide to pass on Redford. At least, that was my thinking until Tuesday, when the New York Film Critics Circle named Redford their Best Actor of the year. If Redford manages to get significant critical support, his momentum may reach a critical mass point, where voters who would have been okay to pick someone else on their ballot begin to feel guilty and stupid for omitting Redford. Redford's nomination is still a very precarious proposition that I will continue to keep a close eye on, but for now, I say he's in.