Oscars 2017: Predicting The Winners
22. Best Actor
Will Win: Casey Affleck Should Win: Denzel Washington Surprise Win: Viggo Mortensen
Casey Affleck is the favourite to win for playing Lee Chandler in Manchester By The Sea, a haunted man wracked with grief and having to face real responsibility for the first time in his life. After his best performance to date, after a solid body of work across many years, it is understandable why Affleck is going to be recognised above the rest.
However, for a subtle performance in a film all about the performances of its leads, Denzel Washington should win for his role as Troy Maxson in Fences. His performance is more nuanced, presenting an older man ground down by the drudgery of everyday life.
Affleck has more to work with in Manchester By The Sea, tackling misery and trauma, but just because Affleck has not been recognised before does not mean 2-time winner Washington should lose out to him for a less showy performance.
Out of the remaining 3 nominees, the only other contender who might upset Affleck is Viggo Mortensen. In Captain Fantastic, Mortensen gives one of his best ever performances as a father trying to raise his family in an alternative way without the guiding hand of his wife. Don't be shocked if, by some miracle, he ends up on the main stage instead.