Oscars 2017: Predicting The Winners
17. Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Arrival Should Win: Arrival Surprise Win: Lion
Despite getting a slew of nominations, Arrival is unlikely to sweep in the same way as La La Land. However, one of the film's strongest elements is Eric Heisserer's intricate screenplay, which is a very liberal adaptation of the original story upon which Arrival is based. It is one of the most deserving screenplays in the two script categories and it would be a surprise to see the award go to anyone else.
However, Lion has been the underdog and might only get a chance to win something in this category- the academy loves a true story, and the journey of author Saroo Brierley is a particularly remarkable one. It wouldn't be a shock to see the award go to a such a heartwarming film and an inspiring story. Garth Davis' film has exceeded expectations and has got a surprising amount of nominations- at least one of them has the potential to result in a win.
The screenplays for Arrival and Lion are occupied with human stories, but Arrival is far more imaginative whereas Lion is more faithful to its source material. Arrival's approach will be appreciated far more on the night.