Oscars 2017: Who Should Win Every Award (And Who Actually Will)
3. Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
Nominees: Casey Affleck (Manchester By the Sea), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic), Denzel Washington (Fences)
Who Should Win
Casey Affleck.
Bloody hell, this was a hard choice. I've lost count of how many times I've been back-and-forth here, deleting and replacing Affleck's name with Washington's and vice versa. I'll probably change my mind another 50 times before we get to the award being handed out.
I've just about plumped for Affleck here for the sheer amount of grief he carries in Manchester By The Sea. It's the kind of performance I didn't know Affleck was capable of, and he's the devastating core of this emotional sledgehammer of a movie.
Who Will Win
Denzel Washington.
Up until very recently, Affleck would've found his name here as well. He was winning every award going, but then Washington won the SAG. The Guilds are generally good bellwethers anyway, but particularly in this category, where 18 of the last 22 recipients have gone on to get the Oscar. That, along with the resurfaced allegations against Affleck, give Washington the edge by a nose. And it's hardly undeserving, because he turns on a dime in Fences, setting off fireworks alongside Viola Davis.