Oscars 2018: Who Should Win Every Award (And Who Actually Will)
1. Best Picture
Nominees: Call Me By Your Name, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread, The Post, The Shape Of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who Should Win
The Shape Of Water
It took over a decade, but Guillermo del Toro finally made a movie that comes close to matching Pan's Labyrinth. Another dark, adult fairytale, this one's set in small-town 60s America against the backdrop of the space race, but that's only a part of it. It is, as you'd expect, full of various influences, with del Toro putting a new twist on elements of Beauty and the Beast, Frankenstein, Creature From The Black Lagoon and a host of B-movies. Despite that, it never feels derivative, but is instead taken straight from del Toro's heart and injected into ours; a hauntingly beautiful, romantic, and magical tale of love, beauty, and monsters.
The performances across the board are brilliant, not least in how much Sally Hawkins and Doug Jones are able to convey without speaking, the production design and cinematography lush, the music swooning. Much like Hawkins' Elisa and the Fish Man, it's almost impossible not to be swept away and fall completely in love with.
Who Will Win
The Shape Of Water
At first glance, this one appears to be a straight fight between The Shape of Water and Three Billboards. The latter has taken some of the biggies, including the Golden Globe and BAFTA, but the most telling might be the Producers Guild of America, which gave its top prize to Guillermo del Toro's period-fantasy.
Although the last couple of years have diverged, more often than not the recipient of the PGA award takes the top gong here, and that looks like being the case again this year as things stand. Shape has support from a lot of the other Guilds too, meaning it should receive plenty of votes across the board, though if they go for del Toro as Best Director they may feel inclined to split their vote and give this to Three Billboards or something else. Billboards didn't land a SAG ensemble nomination either, which every other Best Picture winner since Braveheart has had, so that is a dent to its chances.
Further muddying the waters is the preferential voting system in play here. Three Billboards is quite a divisive film, so while it might get plenty of 1st place votes, it's less likely to be someone's second or third choice. That's the factor that could lead to a big upset, with the likes of Dunkirk, Get Out, and Lady Bird typically loved or liked, meaning they'll pick up plenty of points - but the same could be said for The Shape of Water too.
It's close, and one of the most open in years, but Shape just has the edge.
Who do you think should/will win at the Oscars? Share your picks and predictions down in the comments.