3. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1 (Estimated Gross: $975m)
Now officially one of the biggest franchises in Hollywood, the insanely popular Hunger Games series returns to screens this year with the late November release date that has seen Catching Fire become 2013's biggest hit at the domestic box office, and the third highest-grossing worldwide. Following the tried and tested page-to-screen adaptation route of splitting the final book into two cinematic chapters, expect Mockingjay Part 1 to out-gross Catching Fire, but still fall short of the elusive billion-dollar mark. The first Hunger Games took everybody by surprise when it opened in March 2012 to an unbelievable $152.5m domestic debut. It ended up grossing over $400m in the US alone, but only 41% of its $691.2m worldwide total came from overseas which is a remarkably low number for a blockbuster movie. Over the next 18 months, Jennifer Lawrence became one of the world's most popular movie stars as The Hunger Games developed a following on home video, which saw the sequel arrive with massive expectations. It delivered, with a $158m opening weekend leading to a US box office total of nearly $420m. Catching Fire also saw an increase in overseas business, with international revenue now accounting for over 50% of the $854m worldwide gross. Mockingjay Part 1 will again see an increase in box office takings, but only by a small amount. For comparison, we look to the other massive literary franchises that delivered their closing chapters in two parts, which are of course Twilight and Harry Potter. Breaking Dawn Part 1 grossed $712.1m, only $14m more than Eclipse, before Part 2 set a record for the franchise with almost $830m. Similarly, Deathly Hallows Part 1 took $956.4m, which was only $22m more than Half Blood Prince, before Part 2 grossed a massive $1.3bn. The trend seems to be for Part 1 to gross slightly more than its predecessor, before the closing chapter posts a record gross. I expect The Hunger Games to follow suit and while Mockingjay Part 1 won't reach the billion-dollar mark, Part 2 definitely will.
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