History Says Newcastle Must Sack Pardew To Survive

Only two clubs in ten years have managed to beat the drop after such bad starts with the same managers.

Despite his repeated mantra that ten games is the point at which teams should be judged (he's said it three times publicly in different seasons), Alan Pardew's Newcastle side are showing far too few signs of improvement. When 100% increase in ability and effort leads to a draw snatched away against the run of play (and largely thanks to only one player), something is fundamentally wrong with the whole set-up. But Pardew endures and Mike Ashley remains frustratingly patient with his under-delivering coach despite seven games coming without a single league win. In truth, only one of the games so far has been a truly difficult one (City on the opening day), and the other six should have yielded more points than the four that have currently been amassed. Still though, Newcastle fans are told to remain patient - or worse castigated for having the audacity to suggest that something should probably be done about it - and that the effort and fight will lead to a win or two sooner or later. If Mike Ashley believes that, he will be going against the precedent set by the history of football, according to Mark Douglas at the Chronicle. Only twice in the past ten years have sides on comparable points at this stage of the season stuck with their managers and not been relegated, which is a pretty damning statistic. In the same ten year period, 62% of the clubs with four points or fewer after seven games were relegated. Naturally that leaves 38% of the 21 clubs who started as badly as the Magpies have who managed to survive, and of those 8 clubs, 6 of them changed their managers (with 5 doing so before October). Surely there's a lesson to be learned there? And if Ashley chooses to ignore those figures, how about the revelation that at this stage of the season in 2008/09 - on the way to relegation - Newcastle had five points from the first 7 games? Or that the fixtures were far more difficult, with games against Man Utd and Arsenal? Mike Ashley is an analytical businessman - he recognises investment opportunities, buys brands and builds his empire in a way that suggests he knows precisely what he's doing. In doing so, he surely has to play the markets, keep track of financial and general numerical evidence, so quite why he is choosing to ignore the glaring warnings offered by the past when it comes to Newcastle and Pardew remains utterly baffling. How much further down the track do Newcastle need to go before he notices the ominous ghosts of all of those relegated teams? And come to that, how long can Pardew himself possibly ignore every message from the past that he simply isn't going to rescue the club he supposedly loves so much? Come on now Pardew, pay attention to the past. Even Ruud Gullit had the good grace to resign after seven winless games.
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