Having ignored the lessons offered by the Premier League's relegated sides in the last ten years, and how many of them changed their managers, Mike Ashley is going to have to put his hands in his pockets if he is to see Newcastle avoid the embarrassment and financial ruin of a second relegation under the Sports Direct owner. According to research by The Chronicle - one of the local newspapers petulantly banned for giving column inches to the protests that are now very much a big part of the match-day experience at St. James Park - the average spend of Premier League sides who started badly and managed to avoid the drop is £10m. This summer aside, that is considerably more than the owner has typically chosen to spend on the side, and it's sadly unlikely that Ashley will invest as much, preferring, inevitably a more frugal approach as favoured by Crystal Palace and Sunderland last season (who spent just £3m and £2.5m respectively to stay up). There is no way Ashley would ever sanction another £30m plus window - even though that's what saved Tottenham's season when they brought in Harry Redknapp from Portsmouth - and even the French-obsessed relegation beating transfer splurge of two years ago would be too far a grasp this time out. It is patently obvious to Newcastle fans that Ashley cannot simply stand still: he neglected to bring in either a centre-half or a striker in the summer, and considering the team's problems on the pitch so far this season, both would have probably pushed the side up the league. So going another window without addressing those issues would be tantamount to rolling over and letting relegation happen passively. Ashley's stand-off with himself over whether sacking or keeping Pardew will be the most costly choice must come to breaking point sooner rather than later. If he refuses to invest in January, he will be endorsing the opinion that the club have enough to stay in the Premier League, which will be a silent endorsement too that Pardew is not getting enough out of them. If he sacks the manager, he will likely still have to invest, but he will at least be positively gambling that his transfer recruitment team are more talented than the manager they hand their acquisitions to. That opinion would be agreed with by a significant number of Newcastle fans right now. So how should Newcastle spend that £10m? A centre-half who isn't James Tomkins would be a start, and someone who knows how to score in the Premier League. Quite whether both could even be afforded at that price remains to be seen, but it won't be enough to get to the end of January with empty sentiments that they tried their best to get things over the line, and that targets just weren't available. When you're facing relegation the impetus is on you to pay the right amount, rather than negotiating down and p*ssing teams off as Newcastle have in the past.
