Why Netflix Will Cancel The Punisher
2. Viewer Retention & The Cost
Another major factor that Netflix look at when cancelling shows is their subscription base: not only what drives subscriptions, but what retains them. The service's Chief Content Officer, Ted Sarandos, recently said this was a major part of any cancellation decision. So if lots of people sign up for one show, but then quickly cancel, that's not as valuable as series that keep people around.
It seems as though the Netflix Marvel shows have fallen into the former category, with a poor retention rate that meant they weren't keeping subscribers around. The Marvel shows were more likely to be Netflix subscribers anyway, who'd have their subscriptions regardless of those shows existing. They weren't filling a particular gap, which even some shows with fewer viewers might be doing. Netflix is driven by its algorithms and spends vast resources on analysing the viewing habits of its subscribers, so something obviously hasn't been working with the Marvel shows, and they're clearly expendable.
That becomes more pertinent when considering the cost of these shows. They're Netflix Originals, but the streaming service has had to pay for the rights to the characters, and that makes them all the more costly to produce. Matthew Ball, former Head of Strategy at Amazon Studios, suggested that Netflix paid big for the buzzy IP when looking to make a splash back in 2013, and that the Marvel shows came with a 60% markup cost that made them much more expensive than many of their shows.
Combined with some creative differences, declining viewerships, a decline in quality (Daredevil Season 3 was a major step back up, but too late), and a lack of retention, there's a much clearer picture of why Netflix have cancelled their Marvel shows. With all that, even if The Punisher is somehow a massive success, it's still almost impossible to think Netflix will renew just one Marvel show after cancelling all of the others. It's not like the shows will disappear from Netflix - the 11 seasons and counting will be on the service for years to come - so they still have something to offer, without the need to keep on spending vast sums to produce shows with diminishing returns. And that's before Disney Plus is factored in.