8 Things That Could Trigger AEW’s Downfall

5. Enduring Biases Against Pro Wrestling

AEW's upcoming round of television rights negotiations will tell us a lot about the promotion's future.

This critical period is expected to commence in late 2022, as Tony Khan and co. work to land a new contract ahead of their $45 million/year deal with Warner Bros. Discovery expiring in early 2024. In all likelihood, they will secure an increase. AEW is currently amongst the most undervalued sports properties in the United States, as far as rights fees go, with Dynamite constantly outperforming all but NBA coverage on TBS. Bucking the wider television trend by demonstrating year-over-year growth in many quarters further strengthens its power in negotiations.

Discovery's stance on wrestling will be a key factor. WarnerMedia, AEW's television partner since its 2019 inception, was bought over by its new owners earlier this year, raising questions on Dynamite and Rampage's televised future. Cuts to scripted programming development and key executive departures have exacerbated this. On the other hand, AEW's continually impressive viewership numbers and big focus at this year's upfronts (where AEW content will be used to sell Warner Bros. Discovery to advertisers) bode well.

Dynamite and Rampage's outright cancellation is extremely unlikely. It'd take a Discovery executive with an outright hatred of professional wrestling informed by decades-old biases to see it shunted off the network. In all likelihood, Discovery will attempt to retain a property that has already proven its worth.

But this is far from guaranteed.