Predicting How The AEW Vs. NXT Wednesday Night War Will End
Dave Meltzer reported in the December 23, 2019 Wrestling Observer Newsletter - at a time when NXT generated higher viewership in itself, and was more competitive with Dynamite - that "NXT is below the network average even factoring out Raw and SmackDown". The granular data makes for a more damning assessment of NXT's popularity; per the November 18, 2019 WON, the time slot NXT replaced in September 2019, 'Suits', commanded on average 750,000 overall viewers. In contrast, in what is a more positive omen for AEW Dynamite, the previous TNT slot drew 450,000 viewers. 500,000 viewers - a number to which Dynamite hasn't plummeted yet - was cited internally as an early optimistic projection.
Since head-to-head competition was renewed, following the various schedule changes that plagued both shows across late August and early September, NXT has exceeded that number just twice in nine weeks. The show has regularly fallen below 700,000 overall viewers in what has become a pattern. Another, more important pattern has emerged: even before election fever consumed viewership across the top 50, NXT struggled to chart. The show failed to chart on October 21, 15 and 8. After the aberration that was Halloween Havoc, what appears to have become normal service resumed for the November 11 episode. NXT faces a profound challenge in reaching the advertiser-coveted 18-49 demo.
Even on the night of Halloween Havoc, a landslide overall viewership win in NXT's favour, AEW won the night in every demo bar males 12-14 and overall 50+. It ranked #12 in the chart. NXT ranked #21.
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