Predicting How The AEW Vs. NXT Wednesday Night War Will End

From launch to this current quarter, NXT has dropped from an average Nielsen ranking of 21 to 54. The USA Network in 2019 lost its claim as the #1 cable network, per the December 23 WON. According to Variety, it was the 12th most popular basic cable network, dropping off by 19% on the previous year.

This sort of trend usually demands change, sweeping or otherwise. In early September, WrestleVotes reported (and were backed up by Fightful's Sean Ross Sapp) that WWE had held discussions over moving NXT to a different night.

When this did happen, as an enforced result of the unprecedented late resumption of the NHL, NXT's viewership improved drastically in what was an inadvertent pilot of sorts. The August 19 show drew 853,000 overall viewers unopposed, where the August 26 show drew 824,000. This wasn't a steep drop-off, indicating that the bulk of those viewers who watched NXT were content to do so again, provided Dynamite wasn't on the other channel.

WWE's recent financial results yields something yet more damning. This borders on the conspiratorial, but the NXT rights fee data is conflated with other streams. It is not entirely certain what NXT is bringing in, and the obscured nature of the reporting has encouraged some to project that that amount is very little. Perhaps there's nothing in this. Or perhaps the wrestling promotion isn't working.

Another contrast weighted in AEW's favour here is the $174M rights fee paid by TNT as part of a renegotiated deal in January 2020. In the months since, on a crest of critical acclaim and enthused fan response, AEW has on occasion defeated RAW and SmackDown - unopposed shows that are at this point synonymous with pro wrestling - in key demos.

WWE has a trick it can always play, not that it has for a while, which might actually tell its own story: parachuting main roster stars to the Performance Center for a temporary ratings bump.

CONT'D...(4 of 6)