Predicting How The AEW Vs. NXT Wednesday Night War Will End

But it doesn't work long-term. Even if Kevin Owens does something more than commentary on NXT next week - leading, fortuitously enough, to a match on December 2! - it won't work. Every time WWE does this, even to the extent of marketing NXT as the "dominant brand", the lead never lasts.

This is a predictions piece partly informed by objective data, otherwise informed by a subjective sense of the future. Nobody knows for sure how NXT is perceived internally by USA. USA might be willing to lose this war just as much as WWE seem to be. WWE is willing to lose because the objective is to siphon viewers away from AEW Dynamite and stifle the growth of the competition. USA might well be happy to go along with the plot, to sacrifice numbers on Wednesdays, because the relationship with WWE remains its biggest cash cow. But for how long? And if this is the case, will USA continue to sanction Vince McMahon's battered shield of a third brand?

The USA Network itself doesn't much trouble the top 150 ShowBuzzDaily charts. It is important to analyse WWE NXT's performance in relation to the performance of the network. NXT cannot be described as a hit, but it's only viewed as an in-the-mud loser in wrestling circles. But the USA Network/WWE relationship was far more mutually beneficial two years ago than it is now, and since then, USA have intervened with ideas of their own - nostalgia shows, the 24/7 Title - to improve the RAW numbers. The network isn't entirely content with - or at least not passive in - the relationship.

Vince took SmackDown to Fox and replaced it with a niche concern watched primarily by the older demo. Vince has the leverage in this relationship, but he's damn sure using all of it in 2020.

RAW has stabilised - not that reaching the very bottom is worth popping corks for - which strengthens WWE's hand. But Corporate America isn't what it is because it accepts minor losses.

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