1. Chiwetel Ejiofor - 12 Years a Slave2. Bruce Dern - Nebraska3. Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club4. Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips5. Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street(Alt: Robert Redford - All is Lost) And now we come to what may be the most difficult category of them all: Best Actor. If you've been following the 2014 Oscar race at all, then you know what an absolute gladiatorial battle the Best Actor race is this year. With a mix of seasoned veterans, famous stars in their prime, and up-and-coming names who will hopefully be competing again for years to come, this category has pretty much everything you could want and then some. From a prediction standpoint though, all it means is a massive headache. Here's what we can discern from this Gordian knot. Relative newcomer and breakout star of 12 Years a Slave, Chiwetel Ejiofor, is a for sure nominee and may have already locked up the win. Bruce Dern, whose story has received more coverage this season than any other potential nominee, also looks pretty assured of a nomination at this point. The narrative of rewarding a long-time character actor and Hollywood veteran with his first lead nomination is just too tempting a story for the Academy to resist, and combine this with Dern's performance, and I think we can count him in. I would also be stunned (and incredibly bitter), if Matthew McConaughey missed out on a Best Actor nomination. McConaughey has had perhaps the greatest career turnaround of any actor in the history of film, and his impressive run of performances over the last two years is one of the best short-term thespian stretches regardless of previous achievements (or lack thereof). If the film ends up being as popular with the Academy is it looks like it will be, then it's pretty much inconceivable Dallas Buyers Club gets a Best Picture nomination without an accompanying Best Actor nomination. I also feel relatively confident about the chances of Tom Hanks. As stated earlier, even though it has been hanging out below the radar lately, Captain Philips most certainly has a lot of fans within the Academy. The film also gives Hanks his best acting vehicle in some time, so while it has been awhile since the two-time Oscar winner has been a legitimate contender in the Oscar season, I expect when all is said and done, Hanks will make the cut (for the last scene alone if nothing else). Then there is the always tricky last spot. For a long time, industry legend Robert Redford was assumed to be a likely nominee, and frankly, I still think this could happen. Redford has put almost zero effort in campaigning, and while this may be commendable from a moral point of view, it has not done him much favors in a year as competitive as this is. Even so, given the average age of an Academy member, I wouldn't be surprised to see him make the cut. Then there is Christian Bale. Bale had acclaimed performances this year in American Hustle and Out of the Furnace, but seeing as how the latter landed with a thud in the awards season, his chances at getting a nomination fall on the shoulders of his American Hustle performance. Since his return to grace, director David O. Russell has been incredibly good at getting his actors Oscar nominations (7 nominations over two films), and given the popularity of the film, its a definite possibility. Although given how crowded the field is, unless American Hustle proves to be the Academy's favorite, Christian Bale might not make it. The actor that I believe will make the final spot though is Leonardo DiCaprio. Given DiCaprio's recent history with the Academy, where he continually seems to be the sixth man out, I am not at all confident of this pick. Here's the thing though, if The Wolf of Wall Street really is going to be a major player coming nomination morning, I can't imagine DiCaprio not be nominated. His performance is so inseparable from the movie itself, I can't imagine someone being a fan of the film and not nominating DiCaprio for Best Actor.
A film fanatic at a very young age, starting with the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle movies and gradually moving up to more sophisticated fare, at around the age of ten he became inexplicably obsessed with all things Oscar. With the incredibly trivial power of being able to chronologically name every Best Picture winner from memory, his lifelong goal is to see every Oscar nominated film, in every major category, in the history of the Academy Awards.
