1. Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine2. Sandra Bullock - Gravity3. Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks4. Judi Dench - Philomena5. Meryl Streep - August: Osage County(Alt: Amy Adams - American Hustle) Relative to the last three categories, Best Actress is fairly simple to analyze. The race has been set as a 6-woman competition for some time now. With five slots available, this means one actress will be left standing when the music finally stops, and even this question has been whittled down to a duel between two woman: one the all-time favorite thespian of the Academy Awards and the other a recent favorite who looks to get her first notice in the lead category. Here's what we can take to the bank: Cate Blanchett, Sandra Bullock, Emma Thompson, and Judi Dench will hear their names called Thursday morning. Some may protest such certainty, but there really is very little chance that either of these four woman fail to make the cut. Cate Blanchett and Sandra Bullock literally are 100% locks. Saving Mr. Banks may not be as popular with the Academy as once thought, but even if the movie is shut out of every other category, the one thing from the movie that will be nominated is Emma Thompson's performance. Then there is Judi Dench's performance in Philomena, which a few pundits believe could be the "bubble" nomination, but if one Weinstein film is going to make the Best Picture lineup, it's going to be Philomena, which ranks Dench's performance above her in-studio rival, Meryl Streep. This then leads us with two possible actresses left for the final spot: Meryl Streep in August: Osage County and Amy Adams in American Hustle. This is an incredibly tough decision and I have been going back and forth between the two in my head for some time now. On the one hand you have Meryl Streep, the woman who has received more acting nominations (17) than any other human being in the history of the world. It would seem then that this is a no-brainer, but Streep's boisterous performance in the awards season under-performing August: Osage County has been divisive, some going so far as to saying Streep's turn as the antagonistic matriarch of an Oklahoman family is a detriment to the film. Ms. Streep has proven in the past though that even when she has detractors, she can still gain Oscar's favor (see her last nomination and win for playing Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady). On the other hand you have Amy Adams. Ms. Adams has been very successful in securing nominations from the Academy in her relatively young career (four nominations), albeit exclusively in the Best Supporting Actress category thus far. Ms. Adams, unlike Ms. Streep, also has the advantage of being in a film, American Hustle, that the Academy unequivocally loves. When combine this with the fact that David O. Russell has been incredibly successful at getting his ensembles Oscar nominations (and ensembles don't get much more flashy than American Hustle), and you have a pretty good case for an Amy Adams nomination. My gut really wants to go with Amy Adams, because American Hustle is almost certainly much more beloved in the Academy than August: Osage County, and when you combine this with the fact that actors in David O. Russell movies tend to get Oscar nominations, there is definitely a good argument to be made in Ms. Adams favor. However, you just can't bet against Meryl Streep when it comes to the Oscars, so I'll stick with the safe bet and go with the 17-time nominee.
A film fanatic at a very young age, starting with the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle movies and gradually moving up to more sophisticated fare, at around the age of ten he became inexplicably obsessed with all things Oscar. With the incredibly trivial power of being able to chronologically name every Best Picture winner from memory, his lifelong goal is to see every Oscar nominated film, in every major category, in the history of the Academy Awards.
