Before Midnight Captain Phillips Philomena 12 Years a Slave The Wolf of Wall Street The smart money in this category has been on John Ridley's script for 12 Years a Slave for awhile now, and that makes sense given the film's frontrunner status in the Best Picture race. Lately though, the film's lead in this category has grown a bit tenuous as the awards season has dragged on and a few of the film's competitors have gained some steamed. Particularly, both Captain Philips and Philomena could be poised to strike here. Billy Ray's script for Captain Philips recently won the Writer's Guild award, but because of the guild's inane eligibility rules, many of its competitors (such as 12 Years a Slave) did not compete. While I do feel Captain Phillips is poised to surprise in a few technical categories, the Academy would have to have gone totally bonkers for the film in order for it to take Best Adapted Screenplay. A more substantial threat to 12 Years a Slave exist in this category in the form of Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope's script for Philomena. The film is clearly a favorite among the substantial middle-brow crowd of the category (you know, the same people who gave Argo Best Picture) and does have the backing of Oscar campaigning powerhouse Harvey Weinstein. Not only that though, the film already was rewarded with a Best Screenplay award from the significantly more elitist group of jurors at the prestigious Venice Film Festival, so its not only the meat and potato people who respect the film's script. Also, for fans of the film, this may be the one spot were they could actually give it an Oscar, so anyone dismissing the film's chances in this category does so at their own peril. However, despite the preponderance of evidence in Philomena's favor, I am still slightly leaning toward Ridley's script for 12 Years a Slave. The film may very win Best Picture, and if it does, it may not take very many other awards along the way, but unless it pulls a Grand Hotel (which only won one Oscar for Best Picture), which isn't very likely, it will need to win some other category, and I think it's very likely this may place. Don't be surprised though if Philomena pulls off the upset. Will Win: 12 Years a SlaveCould Win: PhilomenaShould Win: Before Midnight
A film fanatic at a very young age, starting with the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle movies and gradually moving up to more sophisticated fare, at around the age of ten he became inexplicably obsessed with all things Oscar. With the incredibly trivial power of being able to chronologically name every Best Picture winner from memory, his lifelong goal is to see every Oscar nominated film, in every major category, in the history of the Academy Awards.
