Best Documentary
The Act of Killing Cutie and the Boxer Dirty Wars The Square 20 Feet From Stardom Another category the fair weather Oscar-watcher is probably not too keen on, like Best Foreign Film, Best Documentary is a relatively wide open field this year. The cynical play in this category would to be to look at which nominee is the most overtly political and bet on that. Given the political proclivities of documentarians, it's not all that bad a tactic to take, but while the nominees are decided by members of the Academy's Documentary branch, the winner of the category is decided by the Academy as a whole, a membership that is undoubtedly leftward-leaning in its politics, but considerably less militant about it than there fellow documentarians. As proof this, last year's winner, Searching for Sugar Man, was the only nominee of the bunch that didn't have some sort of political or socially conscientious angle to it, so being overly cynical can prove to be a trap in this category. If the Academy continues the trend started last year of awarding populist music-themed documentaries over their more serious-minded brethren, than this year's winning will be the very entertaining 20 Feet From Stardom. A fascinating look at the careers of a number of underappreciated backup singers, the film has been a smash-hit since its debut over a year ago at the Sundance Film Festival. However, if the Academy wants to be a bit more avant garde and earn some brownie points with the critics, they will go with The Act of Killing, Joshua Openheimer's provocative interaction with powerful, former politically-motivated serial killers who he goads into recreating their killings for a "movie". The film has been enormously popular with critics, cracking many top ten lists, and would be the edgy, chic pick to those in the intelligentsia crowd. Beyond these two contenders, I really don't see any of the other nominees pulling off the upset with the possible exception of The Square if the Academy feels the need to comment on immediately pressing contemporary concerns. I, however, believe it will come down to either The Act of Killing of 20 Feet From Stardom. Which one of these will prevail is a really tough call, but I'm going to say the Academy goes mainstream for the second year in a row a rewards 20 Feet From Stardom.
Will Win: 20 Feet From Stardom Could Win: The Act of KillingShould Win: 20 Feet From Stardom