4. Billy Ray - Captain Phillips
Captain Phillips is a film that got a recent upgrading from me upon further review, or more accurately, after watching the first trailer for the film. As I stated in my preview of the Best Director category, I was initially reluctant on the film's Oscar prospects mostly due to the lack of an established history between Paul Greengrass and the Oscars. While he did receive a Best Director nod for his work on United 93, outside of the below-the-line categories, he has never been too successful with the Oscars. Given the vast expectations for the film from Oscar pundits, I acquiesced somewhat and kept it in my mind as a potential player, but put it on a hold pattern until further notice. The release of its first trailer has made a convert out of me though. Intense, single-minded, and focused, if this preview is to be believed, we should have a film that is unflinching in its portrayal of an incredible real life event without overplaying its dramatic hand. If you're unaware, the film is based on the life of Captain Richard Phillips. Captain Phillips was the captain of a U.S. cargo ship when it was unexpectedly hijacked by Somali pirates in 2009. Phillips bravely offered himself up as a hostage in return for the release of his crew, which then led to a daring mission on the part of some U.S. Navy Seals in order to rescue Mr. Phillips from his enforced captivity. Despite my change of heart on Captain Phillips' overall awards season trajectory, I am still a bit wary of the film's chances in this particular category. Paul Greengrass is most known for his "documentary-like" narrative style, and if the film comes off as too much of a procedural, many voters in Writing branch will likely dismiss the film's screenplay, even if they admire the film as a whole. The film's writer, Billy Ray, doesn't exactly have the most prestigious resume to boot either. His last script was the adaptation of the popular young-adult series, The Hunger Games, which was successful at the box office, but was never in the conversation for Best Adapted Screenplay, so if he doesn't have a lot of respect among his fellow writers, the film may have a hard time gaining a nomination in this category.