11. Captain Phillips
Many other Oscar pundits have this film a bit further up their list at this early stage of the game, but I am little more skeptical. Recent events films, especially events that got as much coverage as this did, tend not to do so well with the Academy (although Zero Dark Thirty sure bucked that theory). Meanwhile, the film's director, Paul Greengrass, hasn't exactly set the awards circuit on fire either. He definitely has his fanbase and some decent support from the critics community, and he did manage a Best Director nomination in 2005 for his 9/11 recreation flick, United 93, but his style has always proved too kinetic for the sort of ground swell of support necessary to turn the trick on a successful Best Picture nomination. The film's story, if you don't know, is that of one Captain Richard Phillips, the Captain of the MV Maersk Alabama who voluntarily surrendered himself as a hostage to Somali pirates in exchange for the freedom of his crew. Tom Hanks gets to play the heroic Captain Phillips while Catherine Keener portrays his poor apprehensive wife back home. The story has definitely got the goods to capture the attention of the Academy, but until this one gets some actual screenings, I'll have my doubts.