3. The Butler
From here on out, my confidence level drops a great deal. It's not that the following films won't be great films (they may be fantastic) or that their chances with the Academy are slim to none, but the standard deviation on the type and quality of film we are likely to get increases a significant amount compared to the previous seven. On the top of the list of these highly variable films is Lee Daniels' The Butler. The reason I put it ahead of many other worthy candidates boils down to two factors: the full backing and support of the Weinstein Company and the film's subject matter. The film is based on the life of Eugene Allen, a African-American man who served as the head White House butler starting with Truman Administration and going into the Reagan Administration. This allows for a ridiculously big cast, filled with a plethora of big names, all playing famous 2oth century political figures. In other words, the Oscar mother load. Lee Daniels took a pretty tough thrashing for his last outing, The Paperboy (I am one of the film's few ardent defenders), so this could be a monumental flop, but if Daniels can pull this off, this could be a home run with the Academy.