Nomination Chances: 25%
5. Oscar Isaac - Inside Llweyn Davis
Before now, and by now I mean this very second as I'm typing these words, I have not thought that Oscar Isaac would manage to get a Best Actor nomination. His potential candidacy seemed to be another Michael Stuhlbarg situation again. Stuhlbarg, just to refresh your memory, gave an utterly brilliant performance in the Coens' A Serious Man, but was shamefully passed over, likely due to a lack of name recognition. This is still a very likely outcome for Oscar Isaac as well, but slowly over time, I have begun to think more and more that Isaac may surprise everyone and make the final cut when the nominees are announced. First off, even though the film debuted way back in May at the Cannes Film Festival, Inside Llewyn Davis feels as though it has been picking up momentum lately. The film's strategy of a slow but consistent campaign, with unique musical event campaign ploys that have really seemed to go over with the Hollywood insiders, appears to have been a smart play. Secondly, the Coen Brothers popularity has grown exponentially over the last decade, both among the masses and the Academy. Like Quentin Tarantino, the Coens' work is, for whatever reason, accessible and appreciated among both elites and pedestrians, which explains their recent hot streak with the Academy. Finally, I have repeatedly heard how terrific Isaac's performance in the film is, despite the fact this praise is always qualified with the statement, "but he probably won't be nominated." However, if everybody is secretly thinking the same thing, it spells the perfect recipe for an upset nomination for Oscar Isaac. As I stated a few times in this article, the Best Actor race is extremely fluid, and Oscar Isaac's nomination prospects are very speculative. If you ask me tomorrow, I will probably have a different name for you in this fifth slot, but right now, today, at this time, I'm listening to my gut and going with Isaac.